Texans vs Falcons Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 5: Houston Keeps Cooking in Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons are back in the good ole USA as they prepare to host the red-hot Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons will look to rebound after back-to-back road losses and take on a Houston squad that is fresh off consecutive upset victories led by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

NFL odds pegged Atlanta as a 2.5-point home favorite before that number slimmed to -1 for this Week 5 showdown. Here are my free NFL picks for the Falcons vs. Texans on October 8.

Texans vs Falcons odds

Texans vs Falcons predictions

The Atlanta Falcons are a team that likes to soak up the clock by running the ball, and they play at one of the slower paces in the league. However, they also have a middle-of-the-pack defense that ranks 13th in the league in defensive EPA and 23rd in defensive dropback EPA. 

That's bad news against a surging Houston Texans offense that is coming off back-to-back upset victories where they dropped at least 30 points against both the Jaguars and Steelers. Houston has vastly exceeded expectations on offense due in large part to the play of rookie QB C.J. Stroud. 

As the second pick in the draft, Stroud is dripping with talent: But few expected him to look so good so early in his career. Stroud has been on fire over the last three games, posting a pass efficiency rating of 109.9 while averaging 323.3 passing yards per game, and throwing for six touchdowns without a single interception.

What's most impressive about the Texans rolling up 451 yards against the Steelers was that they faced a defense with the second-best pressure rate in the league and didn't give up a single sack despite missing Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil, left guard Josh Jones, and right tackle Tytus Howard.

Tunsil and Howard are on track to return this week and face an Atlanta defense that has just five sacks on the year. If Stroud has time to throw, he should once again be able to attack downfield, and running back Dameon Pierce will also be more productive with better blocking in front of him. Take the Over on Houston's relatively low team total.

My best bet: Texans team total Over 19.5 (-130 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Texans vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis

The Falcons were 3.5-point faves on the lookahead line but following their ugly loss to the Jags and the Texans' victory against the Steelers, this spread officially opened at -2.5. Early money continued to come in on Houston and this line moved all the way down to a pick'em before buyback on the home side moved the number to Atlanta -1. The total has stayed steady at the opening number of 41.5. 

The Falcons won and covered the spread in their first two games of the year but are coming off a pair of ugly defeats after mustering just six points in Detroit and scoring seven points last week in London against the Jaguars. Atlanta's offense has struggled due to the play of second-year QB Desmond Ridder but this is a team that can run the ball at an extremely high level. 

Rookie Bijan Robinson is tied for third in the league in rushing yards (318) and Atlanta ranks eighth in the league in rush EPA. That will be the key to the Falcons' success here since the Texans are just 24th in defensive rush EPA and have allowed every opponent to rush for more than 110 yards. 

Despite struggling against the run, Houston has turned things around after opening its season with back-to-back double-digit losses. It smashed the Jags by 20 points as 7.5-point road underdogs in Week 3 before clobbering the Steelers 30-6 last week. 

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