The Indianapolis Colts' defense is firmly in fade territory, making Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud a prime target for my top Texans vs. Colts prediction.
Here are my free NFL picks for Week 3 ahead of kickoff at 1 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium.
TOP Pick
Texans vs Colts prediction: Texans -1.5
Two of the NFL's most dangerous offenses have tested the Houston Texans’ defense after the team faced the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. Yet the unit still maintains a significant statistical advantage over the Indianapolis Colts in nearly every area.
Indianapolis has been a disaster defensively, surrendering an NFL-worst 514 total yards per game, nearly 60 yards more than any other team. The Colts are also giving up a league-high 37 points per contest. David Montgomery should also have an opportunity to do plenty of damage on the ground against a Colts defense surrendering 5.4 yards per carry through two weeks.
That's a difficult matchup against a Houston offense sitting inside the top 10 in yards per game. It gives me plenty of confidence backing C.J. Stroud and the Texans, even if Nico Collins remains sidelined.
I’m comfortable fading Indianapolis in this matchup and would play the Texans up to 58%.
COVERS INTEL: The Texans are dawgs on the road: across their last five away games, they're 
Texans vs Colts combo
The Texans have no business losing this game - they're better than the Colts in all three facets, and if they can limit the impact of Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, the offense should be able to handle the worst defense in football.
With that in mind, I'm backing Stroud and Montgomery, who are 3-1 overall against these respective numbers.
Texans vs Colts combo
- Texans -2.5
- David Montgomery 50+ rushing yards
- C.J. Stroud 250+ passing yards
Texans vs Colts touchdown scorer: David Montgomery
The Colts own one of the worst red-zone defenses in the NFL, allowing teams to score at a near-70% clip when opponents reach their 20.
This bodes well for Montgomery, who's being used the third-most in the red zone of any other running back in football, totaling six attempts for 19 yards and two touchdowns.
Suffice it to say, when they get down by the goal line, Montgomery is their man.
Texans vs Colts player prop: CJ Stroud 225+ passing yards
The Colts' defense continues to leak, especially its secondary, which has allowed back-to-back 300-yard days from opposing quarterbacks. Stroud is off to a hot start himself, throwing for 627 across his first two games - not bad. Indy is allowing nearly 14 yards per pass completion, which should put us in a great spot to cash this come Sunday.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 15-11, +3.64 units
- Combos: 0-0, +0.00 units
Texans vs Colts odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texans -1.5 | Colts +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (51%) | Under 42.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Texans 53% | Colts 47%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
More Covers NFL trading tools
Texans vs Colts weather
Lucas Oil Stadium has a retractable roof, so the weather won't impact the game.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texans vs Colts trend to know
The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Colts.
How to watch Texans vs Colts
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Texans vs Colts latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
