Both the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers need wins on Saturday to keep their division title hopes alive.
Each needs a victory to avoid allowing the Jaguars and Broncos to clinch the AFC South and West, respectively, while also giving themselves the best shot at the top wild-card spot should they fail.
That makes this showdown between two of the best teams in the AFC very important, and has given us some strong odds in the touchdown betting market.
See why we’re focusing on the running backs to hit paydirt in my Texans vs. Chargers anytime touchdown picks for Saturday, December 27.
For more NFL picks, make sure to check out our full Texans vs. Chargers predictions!
Texans anytime touchdown pick
Woody Marks (+170 at FanDuel)
CJ Stroud has been playing very well over the past month or so. Since returning from injury, the Houston Texans quarterback has led them to four straight wins with just one interception thrown.
But Stroud has also thrown just five touchdowns in that span, and Houston wideouts have just three red zone targets over the past three games — all to Nico Collins.
The bulk of plays inside the 20 of late have gone to running backs, and Woody Marks presents a great value play against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bolts are allowing 4.45 yards per carry to opposing backs, the 11th-most in the NFL, and nearly a touchdown per game.
Marks was an injury concern earlier in the week, but fully practiced and no longer has a designation. He’s scored in just two of his last six games, but in Week 14 against the Chiefs, he dominated the red zone possessions as he was the go-to on seven snaps.
The Chargers are prone to big run plays, and I love getting Marks at a strong price to score in a game where the Texans will want to establish the ground game to help and protect Stroud.
Chargers anytime touchdown pick
Omarion Hampton (+145 at FanDuel)
Similar to Stroud, Justin Herbert has only thrown nine touchdown passes in his last seven games, while running for two more. And the Texans have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the third-fewest touchdowns per game to wide receivers.
With their dangerous pass rush, it’s a spot where Herbert may need to dump it off more than usual. That’s why I’m looking at Omarion Hampton as the best chance for the Bolts to get a touchdown against a Houston defense that ranks 23rd in red-zone scoring defense.
The running back has only scored in four of his eight games this season, but has scored in two of his three games since returning from injury — once on the ground and once via a reception.
Last week, he was the player turned to on five of the nine snaps the Chargers took inside the 20-yard line, as he found the endzone on the ground. He also paced the team in Week 14 against the Raiders, where he accounted for six of their eight red zone snaps, including a touchdown catch.
Hampton is a good check-down option vs a dangerous Houston pass rush, and he should see an increased snap count with Kimani Vidal questionable.
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