The Houston Texans visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a marquee Week 17 matchup on Saturday.
All eyes will be on this tape-measuring matchup, and my Texans vs. Chargers predictions are calling for this total to go Over the number.
Read more in my NFL picks for December 27.
Texans vs Chargers prediction
Texans vs Chargers Best bet: Over 39.5 (-115)
This is the lowest total of the season for the Los Angeles Chargers, and while the Houston Texans boast an elite defense, I expect both offenses to put up enough points to hit the Over on Saturday afternoon.
The Texans have found an offensive rhythm, averaging 25.4 points per game and ranking 11th in dropback EPA during their seven-game winning streak, hitting the Over in consecutive outings. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has also averaged 27.8 points across their past five home games.
Ultimately, both teams feature capable offenses led by experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses flagged so frequently week after week, it’s hard to see the Texans and Chargers going Under in ideal conditions at SoFi Stadium.
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Texans vs Chargers same-game parlay
Houston has surrendered the second-fewest yards and lowest EPA per play while allowing the fewest points per game and ranking second in turnover differential. The Texans also pace the NFL in pass rush win rate and rank second in run stop win rate, so there are a lot of feathers in the Houston hat.
While the Chargers are definitely legit, I expect the makeshift Los Angeles offensive line to have its hands full on Saturday afternoon.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Houston star Nico Collins has cleared this total in six of the past eight games while averaging 5.3 receptions, 8.8 targets, and 90.1 receiving yards per game.
The Chargers haven’t been gashed through the air with the seventh-lowest yards per attempt allowed, but they have multiple cornerbacks considered day-to-day with injuries, and Collins is a matchup nightmare with a sizable 23.4% target share this season.
Texans vs Chargers SGP
- Texans moneyline
- Over 39.5
- Nico Collins Over 63.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Herbert Fully Loaded
Bolts quarterback Justin Herbert has topped this total in nine of 15 games this season, and he’s averaged 242.6 passing yards per home game this season.
Texans vs Chargers SGP
- Texans moneyline
- Over 39.5
- Justin Herbert Over 217.5 passing yards
- Nico Collins Over 63.5 receiving yards
Texans vs Chargers odds
- Spread: Texans -1.5 (-105) | Chargers +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texans -125 | Chargers +105
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Chargers trend to know
Houston has won six of its last 11 road games (+2.50 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Chargers.
How to watch Texans vs Chargers
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Saturday, December 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFLN |
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