After a chalk-heavy start to the 2025 NFL season, we knew a slate like Week 5 was bound to happen.
Favorites went 5-9 overall last week, and losses from the Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, and Los Angeles Rams eradicated more than half the remaining entries in Covers’ $10K Pro Football Survivor Pool.
My Week 5 advice on Arizona as a “smart” survivor selection looked good for most of Sunday afternoon.
The Cardinals held a 21-6 lead over Tennessee heading into the fourth quarter before a series of misfortunes, usually reserved for those messing with cursed monkey paws, flipped the game on its ear. Arizona — and all its survivor supporters — were handed an improbable 22-21 defeat.
Whether you want it or not, here’s my NFL pick for Week 6, as well as the “safest” selection, according to the NFL odds. Good luck.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 6
Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Moneyline odds: -300 (75% implied win probability)
Is there magic still left in the Indianapolis Colts?
Indianapolis sure as hell looked like the best two-way team in football last Sunday, dismantling the Raiders with a 40 burger. The Colts stay home in Week 6, hosting those gawd damn Cardinals.
Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray popped up on the injury report with a bum wheel, and the Cardinals' response was "see how the week goes". I don’t know if that’s concerning or just gamesmanship.
Indy is among the offensive elite in all those fancy analytics, and the defense is very disruptive, with eight takeaways on the season. Arizona can’t seem to keep its shit together for 60 minutes, with a defense that ranks among the worst in the second half.
The Colts are a savvy choice in Week 6 since their schedule gets road heavy in the coming weeks, and who knows when this Cinderella will turn into a pumpkin. Let's hope it's not Sunday.
Safest Pick: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Moneyline odds: -1100 (91.67% implied win probability)
Oh no, Packers fans! The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco!
Cincinnati’s mid-week move to bring in the ageless arm is a slight improvement over Jake Browning. And by slight, I mean a half-point adjustment on this already monstrous point spread.
Poor Flacco goes from playing behind the Browns’ turnstile protection to the Bengals' putrid pass pro, which somehow rates out worse than Cleveland. And unlike his time with the Browns, Cincinnati doesn’t have a defense to keep things close.
Green Bay is coming off a bye week, and this pass rush is itching to hit something. The Cheeseheads rate out high in pressure rate, pass rush win rate, and PFF pass rush grading.
Jeez, by the time this one is over on Sunday, Cincy may be searching for another replacement QB.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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