For a second there on Sunday, many NFL Survivor pool players were sweating their opening week selections with a number of heavier favorites on the ropes.
The Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers — all of which ranked among the seven most popular survivor pool picks — were in the middle of a dog fight before pulling out the victory late into their Week 1 matchups.
I felt a similar squeeze with my selection of the Philadelphia Eagles in Covers' $10K Pro Football Survivor Contest. Philly barely held off Dallas on opening night, pushing me through to Week 2.
Now that we’re off and running, I remind you that you shouldn’t get too cute with your NFL picks. Rather, let everyone else pick their way out of your pool. Stick to the big chalk, but don’t get caught riding the most popular pick.
And with that in mind, here is my NFL Week 2 Survivor Pool pick.
Teams used: Philadelphia
Best survivor pool bets for Week 2
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
My pick: Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: at Tennessee Titans
Moneyline odds: -270 (72.95% implied win probability)
The Los Angeles Rams are among several teams laying six or more points in Week 2.
Los Angeles visits the Tennessee Titans to face rookie QB Cam Ward, who damn near took out a good chunk of poolies this past weekend. Tennessee took Denver to the limit, thanks in large part to four turnovers from the Broncos.
Beyond that, the Titans didn’t do shit all: 133 total yards of offense, 13 penalties for 131 yards against, and got bullied for 151 rushing yards.
The Rams overcame a challenging Texans team with one of the top defenses in the land, slogging out a 14-9 victory in Week 1. Los Angeles will find it much easier to move the chains against Tennessee, and its defense will get after Ward, who was sacked six times by the Broncos.
I’m not too crazy about grabbing a road team, but I love L.A. in this spot. Sean McVay gives the Rams a massive coaching edge over Tennessee head coach Brian Callahan, who has a hard time remembering the rules and calls plays like someone just knocked on the bathroom door.
The big plus is that Los Angeles may fly a little under the radar when compared to sexier teams laying big chalk, like Baltimore, Buffalo, or San Francisco. The Rams also don't have a ton of future value down the road, with a Week 9 home game against New Orleans as the only slam dunk.
I'm locking in Los Angeles as my Week 2 survivor pool pick.
Safest pick: Baltimore Ravens
Opponent: vs. Cleveland Browns
Moneyline odds: -750 (88.24% implied win probability)
The Baltimore Ravens will be in a rotten mood for their home opener in Week 2. That’s bad news for the Cleveland Browns.
Baltimore is salty after blowing a big lead in Buffalo on Sunday night. Despite that improbable loss, bookmakers have stacked the points against the Ravens in Week 2, with most shops showing a spread of -12.5.
Cleveland was another underdog that almost shook things up in survivor pools, due to their dominating defense. The Browns were a missed field goal and two unlucky interceptions away from stunning Cincinnati. But you know… they’re the Browns.
Divisional rivalries aren’t my favorite survivor picks, but if you’re looking for that one team with the largest implied winning percentage, Lamar & Co. are your Week 2 pick. John Harbaugh is 23-8 all-time versus Cleveland, but did lose to the Browns in Week 8 last year.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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