The Los Angeles Rams have struggled to get their running game going in their march to Super Bowl 56, but a string of top-tier run defenses may have been a big factor for the struggles the Super Bowl odds favorite had on the ground.
Sean McVay should be able to get his rushing attack producing more versus Cincinnati at SoFi but who is he trusting with important carries in the red zone? The answer to that could also bring value in the Super Bowl 56 player prop market, as we highlight below.
Super Bowl 56 touchdown odds
The odds below represent the best odds available for each player's touchdown market from regulated US sportsbooks.
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Sony Michel touchdown pick
- Michel to record a touchdown (+375)
Pick made on February 5, 2022.
The Cam Akers story is incredible. He’s overcome a serious Achilles injury to get back on the field well ahead of schedule and has been somewhat productive. But, after two costly fumbles versus Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round, Akers saw his workload scaled back in the Conference Championship. An injury may have cut into his snaps but we're not so sure he'll be seeing over 20 carries in the big game.
Following a 24-carry, three-catch performance versus the Bucs, Akers saw just 13 carries and one target against the 49ers the following week. Fellow back Sony Michel saw his snaps increase from 14 to 44 over his last two games, which facilitated a 41% decrease in snap share for Akers. Ball control could be the culprit here but it's still a concern for Akers and his backers.
One market that hasn’t picked up on Akers’ decrease in snaps is the touchdown market. Akers is currently priced as low as -120 to score while Michel can be had a much more valuable +350. Michel had four carries inside the 20 versus San Francisco compared to Akers’ one, while playing 57% of the snaps.
Akers is also dealing with a shoulder injury he picked up late in the Conference Championship game that has put him on the sidelines for three days of practice. He is nearly a lock to suit up, but his arrow is certainly pointing down and we aren’t paying a premium for him to score.
Michel also has Super Bowl experience, as he rushed 18 times for 94 yards and a score against the Rams in Super Bowl 53. Predicting this backfield has not been easy this postseaon, but Michel seeing a decent role in the Super Bowl wouldn't surprise us.
Defensively, the Bengals allow 1.0 touchdowns to opposing running backs on the year. They finished 15th in EPA/rush and 18th in success rate against the rush. They allowed the Chiefs and Raiders to make five red zone trips. The Rams should get their chances in the red zone too, as they’ve accumulated 15 trips to their opponents' red zone already this postseason, and not facing an elite defense should help them improve on their efficiency numbers.
Michel scored three times in the five games before Akers drew back into the lineup and after the two lost fumbles and subsequent decrease in snaps, Akers may no longer be the only option in the backfield. Because of that, and Michel’s role in the red zone, we can’t believe books are still posting Michel TD prices of +375. Other books are as low as +200 and we’d price this between +180 and +210.
