#1 thing makes me want to quit betting NFL

I've already decided I'm done with regular season college and probably 75% of the non CFP bowls from now on. I just for whatever reasons almost every season i suck at college and always pick the team with the kids making bonehead mistakes, the kinds you don't see often in pros. I used to always make up for it during bowl season as I had some tried and true angles but now with the transfer opt outs and surprise sit outs in addition to coaching carousels most of the bowls are a crap shoot. The only angle i have found which works and is actually even better now since the new sit out BS is to wait and see any drastic line moves close to kickoff and follow them - they usually indicate some vital information has become known and especially favorites where the line drops a lot are good fades. And still the best thing is to just take any dogs you like SU instead of moneyline as it's usually the same winner and you can get crazy good odds.

BUT, in the NFL while there are still lots of shenanigans especially late in halves, I still have had success and profit so want to keep that going but the number one thing that makes me wanna quit it is this absolutely asinine trend of 'analytics say go for it' and coaches refusing to kick FGs or punt on 4th down.

They've been saying this for like 5 years and I actually think it's a con. Like ESPN (who encourages this with their stupid graphics) is using data from when coaches first started to do it and it was a novel idea so teams were less prepared.

I watch a ton of games and I see way more teams getting stuffed than not, especially in big spots. And it's not just me noticing when it goes against me, i see teams i fade get stuffed all the time too. It's total nonsense IMO and the two biggest 'pioneers' of this trend, John Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel, both got canned this season. The Dolphins got stuffed ALL the time. One time a few years ago McDaniel could have kicked a chop shot FG up 8 to go up 11, it was 4th and like 6 not 4th and 1 and he still thought a guaranteed 2 score game wasn't enough to make him look like a genius he had to try and go for it. And he ran it!

Spread was 10.5 too. I am so glad he got fired he is a clown.

It used to be you didn't go for it unless you were a) losing (by more than 3) and b) it was late in the 2nd half. Now teams will try it when it's still the first half and they're winning! That should never happen. Ever. First half you're not losing kick the FG and keep the scoreboard ticking over. Sean Payton lost the AFC championship game doing this even tho there were two huge factors supporting him even more to take the FG, namely he was on a backup QB and it was gonna snow.

Watching these games lately I'm actually really underwhelmed by how these supposedly clever multimillionaire coaches fk up basic game strategy. I wish they would go back to playing the game the right way but with gambling ingrained into TV broadcasts now, higher variance is what 'they' actually want, so it probably won't happen. It just puts me off betting on it though because Im old enough to remember when it wasn't like this.

Maybe next season instead of constantly creaming it for coaches going for it every time, the announcers can put more of an effort into pointing out what happened this year to the team who went for it the LEAST amount of times on 4th down... 

@NutinButtLove

 I feel your pain. You go through the process of handicapping the game, getting the best line you can get, getting good CLV…all to see the entire game flip on a ridiculous coaching decision. And it’s so hard to predict because almost every team and coach does it. How many games do you think to yourself  “this game should never have played out this way…”. Teams that decide not to punt or take a fg in the first half and now they’re playing catch up in the second half and the entire game is fcked because of it. It’s the biggest coin flip of betting football. Is the coach going to do what he’s supposed to do or is he going to roll the dice and gamble for no reason. Man do I miss the days when you 100% kicked a field goal when you were in range. 4th and 1 or 2 used to not even be a choice. It was automatic field goal or punt. 

@NutinButtLove 

@brn2loslive2win

I agree.  I have written a lot about this and see both sides.  But it is so frustrating the way coaches make their in-game decisions now.

I have been piecing together things about this for my Substack.

There are a lot of intricacies with this new stuff.

The bottom line to me is that it works far better in baseball because of the longer seasons and more opportunities.

I have been saying this for a while on here also.

It is basically playing the probabilities.  No one gets 'scared' of that word -- I think it was Dan Patrick that said it that way.  But they get 'scared' of analytics.

But in baseball you might have the exact situation come up many, many times throughout a year.  It will be closer to evening out in your favor.

In the NFL, you only have 17 games for those situations to work out.  

When they work out, you look 'smart'; when they do not work out, you are apt to get fired.

Plus there are things like the flow of the game, momentum, weather, individual matchups and injuries that analytics simply do not take into account.

So, it can cause a coach to over-rely on them instead of 'gut feel'.

But there are some great things that it has done as well.

Analytics can sometimes equal coaching malpractice.

@Raiders22

 I wish there was data on every time a team was in good position to take points with a field goal and instead went for 4th down. Maybe it’s a biased opinion because we seem to remember when it doesn’t work far easier than when it does. 

One thing I’ve gained from it from a gambling perspective is that when two good offenses face each other, especially with aggressive coaches, it can very easily turn into a low scoring game. And it’s always the average Joe screaming fix! Fix! But I have backed out of quite a few over bets because I know that the coaches won’t kick fgs and that they will likely fail on multiple 4th downs. These are the games where you get an entire scoreless quarter with long drives resulting in no points. I guess we just have to pay close attention and learn more about the coaching tendencies. You know better than anyone, if you do your homework there’s an edge to be found.

@NutinButtLove

@brn2loslive2win

 There are places that track coaches/teams tendencies and how often they rely on analytics in their decision making.  
  But the issues are often that folks confuse one-time situation likelihood versus season long probability.  
   Then if a league average on 4th and 1 is 58%.  Your individual team average may be only 46%. 
   Then in-game decisions need to be based on feel and flow.  If you have already gone for it twice on 4th and 1 in a particular game — do you really go for it a third time, if you didn’t make it the first two times?  Maybe there are matchup reasons in this game that you should not be going for it. 
   Then should you be passing or running in that situation.  
   The NE/DEN game was an example of that — they chose to go for it.  The analytics said to go for it. They did.  But the play call was wrong. 

   Analytics had them 65% to convert!

But they had it 70% on the run and 55% on the pass.  
But they still decided to pass, even with a young QB and a tight defensive game.  

So, analytics can be used incorrectly as well when they are used.  

But that puts the analytics gurus in a win-win situation and the coaches in a dicey spot.  
Because if it doesn’t work the analytics guys can claim, ‘Well you are using analytics incorrectly.”  
But if it does work they will say it was the right decision.  

@brn2loslive2win

 But from a gambling perspective I think it averages out over a season.  There might be certain teams to stay away from.  But I don’t really think so.  

I think it is just something we recall far more if we ‘think’ it caused us to lose a wager.  But we do not think it ‘helped’ that much when it gave us a win. 

I think the analytics that are now used in decided who to wager on or the total in a game has far, far more than helped offset any particular one-game loss or win. 

Analytics and advanced metrics has helped bettors out so very much!

@brn2loslive2win

 I will say that analytics has also helped a lot of teams in game planning, drafting, and time management. 

But there are certain things I wish they would improve on.  
Like the time management and use of timeouts.  

One of the biggest pet peeves I have is wasted timeouts in either half — but especially in the second half.  

The NFL has really gotten to be a one-possession game more and more.  Look at how often the games seem to come down to a last possession game. 

If I was an owner I would be very upset if a coach wasted timeouts. 

I would fine a coach and QB or fire the coach if they kept calling timeouts just because they couldn’t get a play off on third down in time.  
Timeouts are very precious and they become far more valuable as time goes by — because the games have become tighter.  

I do not care if it is 3rd and goal at the 2.  If it is early in the game, or even the third quarter.  Do NOT call a timeout in that situation.  First — do NOT get in those situations to start with.  Have the play ready in time. Either get the play off, or take the 5-yard penalty and regroup.  

Time management and timeout management is a big pet peeve of mine. Too many games come down to last possessions.  If you are short on timeouts to stop the other team to get the ball back, or have time to move the ball down the field efficiently because you wasted one or two timeouts — you look like an idiot.   Too many teams keep doing this. 

@Raiders22

 I couldn’t agree more on the timeouts. It’s unreal the way they blow through them in insignificant situations and then a few minutes later they’re taking a knee before halftime because they didn’t have time to make a scoring attempt. I’ve talked about Matt LaFluer and his timeout usage for years on here. It’s enough for him to be fired in my opinion and that’s not an exaggeration. 

Some of it probably ties into the go for 4th down conversation. Coaches don’t want to take a 5 yard penalty on third and two because it hurts their chances of converting a 4th down if they “need to”. I would imagine this is part of the thought process in some situations. Because they absolutely can’t handle the idea of just punting on 4th down. The whole thing is pure insanity. If I’m a coach I would put emphasis on use of timeouts all season. I would make sure my quarterback understands how valuable they are and encourage him to take matters into his own hands in order to get the play off. Can’t get the play call in fast enough? Go to the line and call your own play. But taking a timeout is not acceptable. 

There was a +money wager available on the superbowl that either coach would use all 6 timeouts. I couldn’t find it at a book that I use, but I know it was out there. And from what I heard the odds were phenomenal. I didn’t pay attention all the way until the end to see if it cashed but I’m almost positive one team had used all three in the first half. I would imagine the patriots used all 6?? I couldn’t believe the yes was +money on that one the way timeouts get burned these days!

@brn2loslive2win

 Very true! 

It's crazy how these couch coaches think they're better than the pros. Coaches do as they're told. These timeouts are an illusion to trigger the final outcomes are decided. Man, you guys need to really wake up. I told this to a buddy when I was on a hot streak capping games and he didn't want to hear me anymore because I was ruining his viewing experience. 

OP - clv is confirmation. bottom line is, if you notice a lot of variance, then you have no edge. You need a better way to project an edge. This is how I BET

Maybe if you weren't such a bitch you would have better luck once in a while.

You mean like when I capped off this season by cashing a +700 Seattle future, plus hitting Seattle on the spread and Under game total, which can be seen in my post history?