The Philadelphia Eagles will look to win their second Super Bowl and their fifth overall NFL championship in franchise history when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Arizona tonight.
The Eagles' offense is filled with star power, starting with dynamic dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts. That means that some key contributors on the offense can often get overlooked in Super Bowl odds, including tight end Dallas Goedert.
Dallas Goedert Super Bowl 57 prop pick and same-game parlay
- Over 4.5 receptions
- Over 4.5 receptions + Over 46.5 receiving yards + Jalen Hurts Over 240.5 passing yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dallas Goedert Super Bowl 57 best bet
Dallas Goedert will never be the first option for the Philadelphia Eagles offense. However, he has been a constant contributor throughout the season, consistently picking up receptions and helping Jalen Hurts move the ball while Philadelphia waits for more explosive plays to develop.
So far in the postseason, Goedert has lived up to that reputation with five receptions in each of the Eagles’ two postseason blowout wins. What’s most impressive is just how easy it has been for Hurts to get him the ball. Those 10 catches have come on just 11 targets, meaning it’s almost automatic when Hurts takes a look at his tight end.
That played out during the regular season as well. Goedert picked up 702 yards on 55 receptions, despite getting just 69 targets. When the ball went to him, Goedert converted that into a 79.7% completion percentage.
The Eagles should be able to move the ball through the air against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that gave up 220.9 passing yards per game during the regular season. However, with Philadelphia having to contend with a Chiefs offense that was the best in the NFL this year, chances are that the Eagles will have to continue going to the aerial attack throughout the game.
That should mean even more chances for Goedert than he saw in the first two Eagles playoff games. Time and time again, when the going gets tough, Hurts — just like every good NFL quarterback — has turned to his tight end as a safe and dependable option to get first downs. Goedert is that guy and will see his influence only increase in what should be a highly competitive game.
Goedert’s reception total for the Super Bowl is just 4.5. He’s gone over that total in the first two postseason games and did so in the regular season finale as well when he caught six balls.
Including both the regular season and the playoffs, Goedert has caught five or more balls in eight of the 12 games in which he’s played alongside Hurts this season. In the most important game of the year, Hurts will need to involve his secondary targets even more.
My bet is on Goedert to hit the Over on his reception total this evening.
Prop: Over 4.5 receptions (-110)
Dallas Goedert Super Bowl 57 SGP
With Goedert likely to get a bunch of receptions at the Super Bowl, I’m happy to use that Over as the start of a solid same-game parlay that targets the Philadelphia Tight end.
The natural move here would be to pick Goedert to score a touchdown. However, the odds being offered on that market are awful. At the moment, I can’t even find +200 on Goedert to score, despite the fact that he’s only found the endzone four times in 14 games this season.
Instead, let’s look at Goedert’s yardage prop, as the TE averaged 12.8 yards per catch during the regular season. While that’s down to 8.1 yards in his two postseason games, I think we can conservatively predict he’ll pick up about 10 yards per catch. I’m expecting Goedert to get the ball at least 5-6 times (if not more), so I’m interested in taking his receiving yardage Over at 46.5 yards.
Goedert’s contributions should also allow Hurts to put together a big game overall. If Hurts can work the ball around to Goedert — along with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and others — I think he’ll find plenty of success through the air against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible against the pass.
I’m taking Hurts’ passing yardage prop at Over 240.5 yards to round out this parlay.
Same-game parlay: Pick (+232 at FanDuel)