Seahawks vs Buccaneers Week 10 Props: Tight Ends Shine in Munich

Germany will host its first-ever regular season NFL game on Sunday, as the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Munich for Week 10 action. Seattle comes to Allianz Arena riding high, sitting 6-3 atop the NFC West, while Tampa gave itself a lifeline a week ago with a Tom Brady game-winning drive. 

Between these two teams, Germany will see a strong cast of talented skill-position players. For our NFL player props, however, we're going to shine a light on a pair of scrappy tight ends and a once-written-off passer. 

We'll get into it all below with our Seattle vs. Tampa Bay NFL prop picks, and be sure to check out our Seahawks vs. Buccaneers picks and predictions for more. 

Seahawks vs Buccaneers prop picks

• Otton anytime TD
• Smith Over 0.5 INTs
• Fant Over 25.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Seahawks vs Buccaneers Week 10 props

You Otton know

As Tampa has wrestled issues with its offensive line and the health of Tom Brady's pass catchers, a rookie has emerged as a reliable tertiary piece. Tight end Cade Otton, fresh off the best game of his career, is in a good spot to produce again for Brady and the Bucs' offense.

With the exception of Week 6 in Pittsburgh, when Tampa had its Top 3 wideouts and Cam Brate available, Otton has been an ever-present factor over the last five weeks. The former Husky has run a route on 77.4% of Brady's dropbacks over that span and drawn an 11.3% target share, turning it into per-game averages of 5.75 targets, 4.25 catches, and 47.5 yards over a four-game stretch. 

Despite Brate's looming return from a neck injury, three-straight games of 5+ targets and a blossoming role would suggest Otton has done enough to retain his place in Brady's stable moving forward. That will surely be the case this week, with Russell Gage trending toward not playing, and Julio Jones and Mike Evans banged up.

Aiding Otton's cause further this week is the opponent, a Seahawks team that continues to be flawed in their defense of tight ends. Across eras, personnel, and schemes, Pete Carroll's defenses have always struggled to defend the position and it has continued in 2022. Only the Cardinals are allowing more than Seattle's 70.5 yards per game to tight ends, with the 7.5 targets given up on a weekly basis just off the top of the league, too.

With Brate given a questionable tag, there aren't any Otton receiving yards or receptions markets open yet. I am, however, happy to take a flier on him to get in the paint vs. a Seahawks defense that has allowed the third-most scores to tight ends (5) and keep a close eye on his receiving markets to hit the Over depending on the line.

Cade Otton Prop: Anytime touchdown (+425)

Wrote me off 

There's been a lot that has gone into Geno Smith's revitalized career and position as a Comeback Player of the Year candidate. He is running Shane Waldron's made-easy offense brilliantly and throwing the ball as accurately as any quarterback in the league.

Another of Geno's great strengths, however, will be tested against the Bucs and Todd Bowles. Smith's football IQ is wildly underrated and few quarterbacks are diagnosing defenses pre-snap as well as Smith is in '22. That, in chorus with Waldron's scheme manufacturing separation for his receivers, is what has made Smith so fabulously efficient. 

Smith's pre-snap prowess is going to be stressed against a Bowles defense that thrives on chaos and confusion before the snap, disguising both pressure and coverage looks with aplomb. Bowles' call sheet will be freed of any limitations this week with the return of Antoine Winfield Jr., a safety who is effectively a three-level defender, equally comfortable blitzing or playing in the box as he is playing the deep middle or carrying tight ends downfield. 

All it will take is one wrongly diagnosed pre-snap look for Smith to gift a turnover to Tampa's opportunistic defense, and Bowles' defense will stress that factor snap after snap. I don't expect Smith to pass the test without fault. 

Geno Smith Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+100)

Fant-astic matchup

For all of the Seahawks' flaws defending tight ends... the Buccaneers aren't much better. Tampa's among the bottom-10 teams defending the position, giving up an average of 6.8 targets, 5.1 catches, and 54 yards per game.

Now, the Bucs are going to come up against an offense that plays three tight ends with regularity but we're going to focus on the best receiving talent — who has begun to take a stronger hold on the position in Seattle in recent weeks.

After running a route on 48.5% of Smith's dropbacks and earning an 8.3% target share through the first four weeks, Fant's role has ballooned. Over the last five games, Fant has had a route participation rate of 59% and seen a 15.2% target share as a result.

Fant went Over his yardage total just once in the first four games, but he has since hit the Over in three of his last five despite the closing number growing by five yards, to 25.5, and now another three, to 28.5.

With a greater role in Seattle's offense and a matchup with a Bucs defense that has shipped pretty sizable production to tight ends in '22, take Fant to go Over his yardage total for a fifth time this season. 

Noah Fant Prop: Over 25.5 receiving yards (-125)

Pages related to this topic