Saints vs Vikings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 10: Target Olave's Receiving Total in Minnesota

Joshua Dobbs has been one the best stories of the NFL season so far and looks to add another chapter to his football folklore when the Minnesota Vikings host the New Orleans Saints in Week 10 odds.

Dobbs, who parlayed his sudden success in Arizona into a trade to the Vikings before Week 9, had to step in for injured backup quarterback Jaren Hall and willed Minnesota to a 31-28 victory over Atlanta despite being with the team for only a few days.

Dobbs & Co. get a tougher test against this New Orleans defense, which ranks among the stingiest in the land. The Saints sit Top 10 in many advanced defensive ratings, including allowing the ninth-lowest points per play.

I'll dissect the NFL odds and give my best NFL picks for Saints vs. Vikings on November 12.

Saints vs Vikings odds

Saints vs Vikings predictions

A good quarterback not only takes responsibility for his own actions but also comes to the defense of others. New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr did just that this week when asked about the poor production from second-year receiver Chris Olave.

"He's a great teammate. He does anything you ever ask him,” Carr told reporters. “Sometimes even when it's the hard stuff, he goes in there and he does it. We called on him to put us in a better field goal position. Boom, he comes up for us."

Olave has finished Under his receiving yards prop in five of the last six games, including a pair of 46-yard efforts in the past two outings. On the season, the Ohio State product has 564 receiving yards with 50 catches from 86 targets.

Carr hasn’t been hitting Olave for deeper strikes downfield in recent games. And while his target share is still high, those looks have been on shorter and intermediate throws, leaving Olave to average about eight yards per reception.

Olave’s downtick in production has his yardage prop for Week 10 currently listed at 60.5 against the Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota ranks middle of the road in terms of pass defense but hasn’t faced many capable QBs along the way, matchup up with the likes of Tampa Bay, Carolina, Chicago, Green Bay, and Atlanta. When the Vikings have come upon quality quarterbacks, they've been burned by Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers.

The blitz-happy approach of defensive coordinator Brian Flores has left Minnesota susceptible to yards after the catch, allowing the third-most YAC on the year. That gap in the Vikes' defense will help Olave turn those shorter receptions into big gains.

Olave leads NOLA in yards after catch and ranks among the best receivers in the NFC when it comes to adding those bonus gains (184 YAC). He can do damage in different ways and bounces between the slot and lining up out wide.

Player projections for Olave are mainly positive, with the bulk sitting past his 60.5-yard total for Week 10. My number comes out to just shy of 66 yards, while the ceiling is close to 73 yards from some forecasts.

Given the Vikings will have a brand new QB running their offense, NOLA could end up with plenty of possessions and a chance for Carr to cool the chatter around his budding star WR.

My best bet: Chris Olave Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Saints vs Vikings same-game parlay

Chris Olave Over 60.5 receiving yards

Over 3.5 field goals made

Saints ML

+475 at bet365

Olave and Carr started clicking against Chicago and his projections point to an Over on his receiving prop.

Meanwhile, With the Vikings' offense stalling out and the Saints struggling inside the RZ, we could see plenty of drives ending in field goal attempts. The Saints' defense will be too much for Minnesota to handle, especially with Joshua Dobbs running a dumbed-down playbook.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Saints vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead line for this game before the events of Week 9 listed New Orleans as a 2.5-point road favorite, knowing the Vikings would have to start a backup quarterback with Kirk Cousins lost for the season.

And despite the Saints picking up their second straight victory over Chicago, the official Week 10 opener hit the board at New Orleans -3 and has sunk back to -2.5 at most books on Thursday afternoon. According to Covers Consensus, 53% of picks are siding with the home side in Week 10.

Dobbs was able to make some playground plays in his surprise appearance for Minnesota last Sunday and bettors should expect a slimmed-down approach to Kevin O’Connell’s offense as Dobbs learns the playbook.

Dobbs doesn’t push the ball downfield like Cousins could, sitting near the bottom of QB ratings in terms of completed air yards. Top target Justin Jefferson was activated off the IR this week, but the star wideout remains a long shot to see action as he recovers from a hamstring injury according to O’Connell.

That means Minnesota could be asking a lot from the ground game on Sunday. On the season, the Vikes sit near the bottom of the league in run rate (34.68%) but handed off on 45.21% of snaps against the Falcons last week.

The Vikings’ rushing attack is toothless, ranking 27th in EPA per handoff and averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt behind an offensive line that sits 21st in run block win rate. That group goes up against a NOLA stop unit giving up the fifth-lowest EPA per handoff and 11th run stop win rate at ESPN.

As for the Saints offense, business is picking up in the points department. After averaging just 15.5 points per game in the opening four contests, New Orleans has scored 26.6 per outing over the last five appearances.

Minnesota’s defense has been hit-and-miss under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who has amped up the intensity of this pass rush. His blitz-heavy schemes have brought extra bodies on 51.3% of dropbacks — the highest blitz rate in the league — but have produced a pressure rate of just 21% with 24 sacks on the season.

Carr has been steady when blitzed this season, but not exceptional by any means. His stats haven’t seen a notable downtick when facing extra rushers, but he has thrown two of these four interceptions while being blitzed and his completion percentage does sag a bit in those spots.

The Over/Under for Week 10’s had a look-ahead number of 38.5 but the official opener hit the board at 40.5 O/U. That’s up to 41 points as of Thursday afternoon with Covers Consensus showing 54% of picks on the Over.

Minnesota enters with a 2-7 O/U record on the year, having played to the Under in all four home stands so far in 2023. The Vikings offense was running at one of the quicker tempos in terms of seconds per play (seventh fastest) and played a quick pace with Dobbs in the mix last week (25.9 seconds per snap).

New Orleans is also 2-7 O/U thanks to its stumbling offense early in the year and sound stop unit. The Saints played Over the total in last week’s win against Chicago, which is just the third time NOLA has topped the total in its last 19 games going back to 2022.

Saints vs Vikings betting trend to know

New Orleans is 8-13 Over/Under on its team total over the past 21 games (Under TT 62%). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Vikings.

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