Bears vs Bengals Prediction, Picks & Odds for This Week’s NFL Preseason Game

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst 5+ years betting experience
Updated: Aug 21, 2026 , 02:19 PM ET • 4 min read

With the Bengals not playing any key players, Chicago's offensive depth, especially at QB, should make the difference on the road.

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Case Keenum Chicago Bears NFL preseason
Photo By - Imagn Images. Chicago Bears quarterback Case Keenum (11) looks to pass the ball.

A Cincinnati Bengals lineup consisting of backups hosts the Chicago Bears on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET (WFLD, WXIX) from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.

With Zac Taylor resting all of his key players, Chicago is a 1.5-point road favorite, and my Bears vs. Bengals prediction and NFL picks project Ben Johnson to notch yet another preseason win.

Bears vs Bengals prediction

Pick Kalshi
Probabillity
Bears -1.5 48%
Over 34.5 52%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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 TOP PICK

Who will win Bears vs Bengals: Bears -1.5 

Kalshi probability: 48%

Ben Johnson's intensity is unmatched in the NFL coaching world, and it seems to even extend to the preseason. The Chicago Bears' head coach wasn't messing around with his play-calling in Week 1 of the preseason, and up by a touchdown late in the third quarter against the Cleveland Browns, he was all systems go as his team scored 17 unanswered.

With that 24-point win, Johnson remains undefeated in the preseason, holding a 3-0-1 record and outscoring opponents 125-61. And even if he follows the Cincinnati Bengals lead and doesn't play any key players, the Bears have the advantage.

Cincinnati is unlikely to leave 41-year-old backup QB Joe Flacco in the lineup long, which means 40-year-old third-string Josh Johnson and fourth-string Sean Clifford will play the majority of the game. Those two combined to go 11-for-22 for 86 yards with two turnover-worthy plays last week.

The Bears' backup QB room is a lot more proven in the preseason. The Bears are 7-0-1 in the last eight preseason games Tyson Bagent has played in, while Case Keenum was a star last week, going 9-for-10 with 151 yards and two TDs.


Bears vs Bengals Over/Under pick: Over 34.5 

Kalshi probability: 52%

The Under has been hot in the preseason, but the Bears' offense has been hotter. In Johnson's four preseason games as Chicago's head coach, the Bears are averaging 31.2 PPG and have never scored fewer than 24.

The average game total in preseason games during Johnson's tenure in the Windy City is 46.5, and with Bagent and Keenum under center, Chicago shouldn't have trouble scoring. Bagent is a perennial preseason star, with 887 passing yards and nine total TDs in his last eight preseason games.

Keenum has been even better in his preseason career. The FBS record holder for career passing yards (19,217) and TD passes (155) has thrown for 3,112 yards and 17 TDs with just six INTs in the preseason since 2013.

The Bengals may not need to score much for the Over to hit, either, but they do have a talented room of pass catchers to lean on (Dohnte Meyers, Colbie Young, Jack Ednries), any of whom could pop off.

Bears vs Bengals live odds

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Bears vs Bengals weather

Weather shouldn't have any impact on the game, with the forecast calling for a clear night in Cincinnati.

How to watch Bears vs Bengals

Location Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Date Saturday, Aug. 22, 2026
Kickoff 7 p.m. ET
TV WFLD, WXIX

Bears vs Bengals latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob Paul has worked in the sports betting industry for several years, primarily covering collegiate sports with a sprinkle of NFL, NBA, WNBA, and CFL. He uses a combination of advanced stats and film to find betting value, and aims to exploit specific matchups with plus-money player props.

A college sports junky, Rob's betting process tends to revolve around which games he plans on watching on a given day/week. He begins the process by looking at the college football/basketball schedule and making a list of what he plans on watching before diving into advanced numbers to help inform how to bet each matchup.

Typically, Rob bets at FanDuel and bet365, as they tend to offer a wider array of collegiate player props. Rob loves the way sports betting can act as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly Group of Six and FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball.

Before joining Covers, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, building his college football and NFL experience and expertise while working as a full-time local community journalist.

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