Sunday night is capped off with a classic NFC South battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints. The Saints (6-7) are clinging to their playoff hopes and will be thin on the O-line while the Bucs (10-3) are hunting for the no. 1 spot and a first-round bye.
Can Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara generate any offense against Tampa Bay? Can the Buccaneers pick up their first regular-season win vs. NOLA in seven attempts? Find out in our free player props and predictions for Saints vs. Buccaneers.
Saints vs Buccaneers prop picks
- Alvin Kamara Under 55.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Taysom Hill Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-105)
- Tom Brady Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+145)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Saints vs Buccaneers SNF props
No Alvin Matter
Alvin Kamara came back to the lineup last week and he and Taysom Hill accounted for 215 of the team’s 378 total yards with Kamara gaining 145 of them. Kamara totaled 120 yards on the ground versus the Jets in a win last week but with a rushing total of 55.5 yards, the books aren’t expecting a repeat performance against the Buccaneers’ stout run defense.
Kamara had 61 rushing yards in a surprising Week 8 win over Tampa Bay but needed 19 carries to get there. A game script that had the Saints leading or tied after every quarter also was a big help. That likely won’t be the case this Sunday with Tampa rolling and coming in as 11.5-point home favorites.
In his two games against the Bucs last season, Kamara totaled just 56 rushing yards on 21 carries and that included a pair of wins. Bruce Arians will be content forcing Hill to beat his defense and that will likely make things difficult on the ground and decrease Kamara’s carries while the Saints inevitably play catch up.
The Saints will also be short-handed on the offensive line as both their tackles, Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead, have been ruled out. It could be tough sledding for this New Orleans O-line.
The running back’s rushing total opened at 65.5 in the first meeting but was bet down to a closing total of 56.5. We're already seeing his Week 15 rushing total fall in some places but 55.5 is still available as of Saturday morning. Tampa allows just 63 running back rushing yards per game.
PICK: Alvin Kamara Under 55.5 rushing yards (-114)
The loss of both the Saints' All-Pro tackles comes at a bad time as the Buccaneers are thin in the secondary and could be missing as many as four defensive backs Sunday. If the new O-line can’t hold protection against the Buccaneers who blitz at the highest rate in football and generate the fourth-most pressure, Hill won’t have any time to take advantage of Tampa’s weak DBs.
Hill is one of the slower quarterbacks at getting the ball out as his 2.6 seconds in pocket time is the fifth slowest in football. If the QB will be under duress Sunday night, where does that leave us in regards to a prop angle?
Hill is a below-average passer and his legs are his best weapon. He had a four-interception game two weeks ago and would be in better shape trying to escape on the ground than throwing the ball before he’s ready. This could lead to a few more rushing attempts from a QB who has carried the ball 22 times over his last two starts.
With a rushing attempt total of 8.5 and likely playing from behind, Hill should have plenty of chances to take off. With his offensive line issues, we could also see a few more breakdowns and non-designed run plays from the swift-footed signal-caller. We like Hill's rushing attempt total prop more than his total rushing yards prop that sits at 43.5 yards.
PICK: Taysom Hill Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-105)
In his age-44 season, Tom Brady is the betting favorite to capture the league’s MVP heading into Week 15 at -167. He’s thrown for over 4,000 yards already and has tossed 36 touchdowns. In his Week 8 meeting in New Orleans earlier this season, he finished with 375 yards and four scores.
The Saints have the best rush defense in the league (No. 1 in rush EPA and No. 2 in rush success) and scoring against them on the ground is not advised as they’ve conceded just one rushing TD over their last three games. Opposing running backs are averaging 0.4 rushing TDs vs. the Saints this year which is the lowest mark in the league.
Compounding the rushing difficulties for the Bucs is that Leonard Fournette was DNP at practice on Thursday but was a full go on Friday. Coach Arians insisted that he will play on Sunday but Lenny could be less than 100 percent. So what does this mean for Brady? It could mean more passing touchdown opportunities to a receiving corps that is looking healthy heading into a decent matchup versus the Saints’ secondary.
Brady roasted this secondary for four TDs in Week 8 and has tossed three or more TDs in six of his 13 games this season. New Orleans could also struggle to move the ball offensively which could leave Tom & Co. some short fields at home where they average 37.5 points.
With a team total of 29.5 points and a tough task to score on the ground, we’re hitting the Over 2.5 passing TDs for Brady for plus money.
PICK: Tom Brady Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+145)