Ravens vs Falcons AI Predictions for SNF: Week 5 ATS Pick & TD Projection

C Jackson Cowart - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
C Jackson Cowart • Betting Analyst 10+ years betting experience
Updated: Oct 11, 2026 , 02:10 PM ET

We trained ChatGPT to project the final score of Ravens vs. Falcons for Sunday Night Football, featuring an ATS and O/U prediction and a touchdown pick tonight.

Ravens vs Falcons AI predictions SNF, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (5) drops back to pass.
Photo By - Tommy Gilligan / Imagn Images via Reuters Connect. Ravens vs Falcons AI predictions SNF, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (5) drops back to pass.

Even with Lamar Jackson ruled out, our Ravens vs. Falcons AI picks still call for an upset tonight on Sunday Night Football. Tyler Huntley gets the start for Baltimore against an Atlanta team coming off consecutive wins when these teams meet at 8:20 pm ET on NBC from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.

Our AI model projects a 24-23 Ravens victory as part of our NFL AI predictions for Week 5. Below, we break down Ravens +3.5 and Over 43.5, along with our best anytime touchdown pick using the latest odds from the best prediction market apps.

Ravens vs Falcons AI picks

Win probability courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; odds may vary.

Ravens vs Falcons AI prediction

SUN · 8:20 pm ET · NBC
BaltimoreRavens
24–23
Score prediction
AtlantaFalcons
KalshiWin probability based on market
Ravens 39%Falcons 62%
Projected marginRavens by 1
Projected total47 points
More analysis

Baltimore can win with Huntley, but it needs to give him chances to throw before Atlanta can pin its ears back. The Falcons allow just 2.7 yards per carry, so repeatedly handing off to Derrick Henry and hoping for easier third downs is a tough way to replace Jackson. Early-down play-action and quick completions can make Atlanta defend more of the field, with Henry still giving the Ravens a threat to finish drives. Jason Logan’s Ravens vs. Falcons prediction also takes Baltimore +3.5 against a home favorite playing on a short week. Zay Flowers remains questionable with a foot injury, which makes protecting Huntley and finding reliable underneath options especially important.

Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games since Michael Penix Jr. returned, and Baltimore cannot devote everyone to Bijan Robinson without creating openings behind its linebackers. Sound tackling can make the Falcons sustain drives, but Trey Hendrickson’s absence reduces the Ravens’ options for disrupting the passing game. Our 24-23 forecast has Baltimore doing enough to escape with the win while both offenses reach the 20s. That supports Ravens +3.5 and Over 43.5, with the total clearing the line by 3.5 points. The biggest threat to both picks is the same: Atlanta’s front stalling Baltimore’s offense before Huntley can establish a rhythm.

Anytime touchdown scorer

Ravens vs Falcons
Baltimore Ravens logo
Touchdown pick

Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · RB

Anytime touchdown
Kalshi Anytime touchdown probability based on market
56%
More analysis

Derrick Henry does not need a huge rushing night to find the end zone. He has seven rushing touchdowns through four games, tied for the league lead, and scored again in last week’s win over Tennessee. That gives us a much firmer reason to back him than simply expecting Baltimore to run more with Huntley. With the Ravens projected to score 24 points, Henry is our choice to finish one of their scoring drives.

Atlanta’s run defense is the obvious obstacle, and losing Jackson removes a runner defenders normally have to account for. Baltimore needs to create opportunities through the air instead of expecting Henry to carry the entire offense. Still, a defense can limit a back’s rushing average and concede a touchdown when he gets a chance close to the goal line. Henry’s established scoring role makes him our pick at a 56% Kalshi market quote.

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How our NFL AI predictions work

Our NFL AI predictions use a custom forecasting model built with GPT-6 Astra to project a final score for each matchup using historical scoring results, team-strength ratings, game conditions, matchup details, and other relevant context for predicting the final score.

The score forecasts are fixed before we compare them with the selected Kalshi spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under picks. Kalshi percentages are market quotes, separate from the score forecasts. We track results against the original selections and lines at time of publish.

We’ll continue updating the process as the season develops and publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection.

Odds and market lines are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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C Jackson Cowart
Betting Analyst

C Jackson Cowart is a content strategy consultant for Covers with a special focus on big events and research projects. In his seven years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter, he has stayed true to "process over results" while specifically targeting futures betting and news-driven markets, where he can lean on advanced metrics and an understanding of market psychology to attack value before the number moves.

An award-winning writer and editor with a decade of experience in sports media, "C-Jax" has previously worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and multiple large daily newspapers. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he covered the Tar Heels' championship run through the 2017 NCAA men's basketball tournament. He's cashed some big tickets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — but he's still haunted by enough second-place slips to wallpaper his home office.

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