Even with Lamar Jackson ruled out, our Ravens vs. Falcons AI picks still call for an upset tonight on Sunday Night Football. Tyler Huntley gets the start for Baltimore against an Atlanta team coming off consecutive wins when these teams meet at 8:20 pm ET on NBC from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
Our AI model projects a 24-23 Ravens victory as part of our NFL AI predictions for Week 5. Below, we break down Ravens +3.5 and Over 43.5, along with our best anytime touchdown pick using the latest odds from the best prediction market apps.
Ravens vs Falcons AI picks
Win probability courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; odds may vary.
Ravens vs Falcons AI prediction
SUN · 8:20 pm ET · NBCMore analysis
Baltimore can win with Huntley, but it needs to give him chances to throw before Atlanta can pin its ears back. The Falcons allow just 2.7 yards per carry, so repeatedly handing off to Derrick Henry and hoping for easier third downs is a tough way to replace Jackson. Early-down play-action and quick completions can make Atlanta defend more of the field, with Henry still giving the Ravens a threat to finish drives. Jason Logan’s Ravens vs. Falcons prediction also takes Baltimore +3.5 against a home favorite playing on a short week. Zay Flowers remains questionable with a foot injury, which makes protecting Huntley and finding reliable underneath options especially important.
Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games since Michael Penix Jr. returned, and Baltimore cannot devote everyone to Bijan Robinson without creating openings behind its linebackers. Sound tackling can make the Falcons sustain drives, but Trey Hendrickson’s absence reduces the Ravens’ options for disrupting the passing game. Our 24-23 forecast has Baltimore doing enough to escape with the win while both offenses reach the 20s. That supports Ravens +3.5 and Over 43.5, with the total clearing the line by 3.5 points. The biggest threat to both picks is the same: Atlanta’s front stalling Baltimore’s offense before Huntley can establish a rhythm.

Ravens vs Falcons AI touchdown pick
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How our NFL AI predictions work
Our NFL AI predictions use a custom forecasting model built with GPT-6 Astra to project a final score for each matchup using historical scoring results, team-strength ratings, game conditions, matchup details, and other relevant context for predicting the final score.
The score forecasts are fixed before we compare them with the selected Kalshi spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under picks. Kalshi percentages are market quotes, separate from the score forecasts. We track results against the original selections and lines at time of publish.
We’ll continue updating the process as the season develops and publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection.






