Rams vs 49ers Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Robinson Breaks Through

The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers rekindle their heated NFC West rivalry on Monday Night Football to close out NFL Week 4.

The defending Super Bowl champs have recovered from a Week 1 embarrassment but still don’t look like the same team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy last February — most notably an offense playing well off the pace of 2021.

As for the 49ers, they enter Week 4 with the risk of starting the year 1-3 straight up, with the betting markets going against San Francisco as short home favorites. The Niners do have recent history on their side, winning three straight contests over L.A. in the Bay Area going back to 2019.

I give my favorite free NFL betting pick, plus dissect the point spread, Over/Under total, and Monday Night Football props for Rams at 49ers on October 3.

Rams vs 49ers best odds

Rams vs 49ers picks and predictions

These two teams have a ton of history between them, notably, since head coaches Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay picked up their respective clipboards back in 2017.

However, one player that could have a big impact on Monday’s result is new to this NFC West war: Rams wide receiver Allen Robinson.

Robinson has had a quiet start to his tenure with L.A. after garnering a lot of offseason love in the player futures markets this summer. Robinson had only 12 yards on one catch in the Week 1 blowout loss to Buffalo and followed that with 53 yards (four catches) and 23 yards (two catches) the next two weeks.

Consequently, his receiving yards prop totals have dropped like a stone across the market. Robinson’s Week 1 receiving yards Over/Under was an ambitious 65.5 yards, which trimmed to 45.5 in Week 2 (which he surpassed by 7.5 yards) before going Under his Week 3 total of 50.5 yards. 

His Week 4 receiving yards prop is on the board as low as 38.5 yards for this battle by the bay. It feels like a great spot to buy low on a receiver that was working his way into a new system and cooking up chemistry with a new quarterback (with no preseason reps mind you) in the opening month of action.

Not only is Robinson a new wrinkle to this offense and something the 49ers haven’t encountered in past matchups with McVay’s playbook, but he should have plenty of opportunities to make a splash considering the makeup of this San Francisco defense.

The Niners enter Week 4 owning fifth best Defensive DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers at Football Outsiders and will be throwing double coverage at Rams WR1 Cooper Kupp, who has routinely torched the 49ers. We’ve seen Los Angeles’ WR2 options have nice outputs against San Francisco (Jefferson, Beckham Jr.), and with Van Jefferson still on the IR, Robinson will enjoy plenty of snaps in single coverage Monday night.

Giving Robinson even more life in this prop market is the 49ers’ ability to lockdown tight ends. The Niners currently rank out tops in the NFL in yards allowed to TEs and finished 2021 with the third lowest yardage allowed to the position. That means Rams TE Tyler Higbee — who sits second on the team in targets and receiving yards — won’t be there as a popular option for Matthew Stafford.

I'm also not completely sold on San Francisco's passing defense, as it has played two poor QBs in bad weather games (Chicago and Seattle) and then caught a Denver offense in transition with new QB Russell Wilson — who did cook the Niners for that game-winning drive last Sunday night. While the advanced defensive metrics have San Francisco near the top, I believe there's wiggle room against what will be the best offense the 49ers have faced so far in 2022.

With Robinson another week into McVay’s complex playbook and Stafford’s two favorite options getting pinched by the Niners defense, the window is open for him to top his discounted receiving yards total. 

My best bet: Allen Robinson Over 38.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Rams vs 49ers spread analysis

The lookahead line for this divisional rivalry was sitting at San Francisco -1.5 this summer, based on a Niners attack led by QB Trey Lance. 

The official opener for Week 4 hit the board at that same spread despite San Francisco coming in 1-2 SU and having to go with Jimmy Garoppolo under center after Lance’s season-ending injury in Week 2.

Early play on the 49ers pumps this point spread to as high as -2.5 on Monday before buyback got down on Los Angeles +2.5 on Tuesday and trimmed a full point from this line. As of Sunday morning, the market consensus is San Francisco -1.5.

BetMGM books are reporting 72% of bets and 70% of handle riding with the Rams on Monday Night Football. Covers Consensus isn’t as bullish on L.A., with 61% of picks siding with Los Angeles.

Rams vs 49ers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under number was at 49 points in the lookahead markets this summer. But with both offenses struggling to meet expectations out of the gate, and Jimmy G coming off a less-than-convincing effort in a loss at Denver in Week 3, oddsmakers re-opened this total at 47 points early Monday morning.

Early Under money pounced on that total and drove it down as low as 42.5 points by Monday afternoon, eventually dipping to 41.5 before buyback on the Over increased the number to 42.5.

Los Angeles sits 12th in points per play and has seen a drastic drop off in production in the second half, owning the 28th-ranked EPA per play in the final two quarters. San Francisco comes in 29th in points per play but has seen some of its production skewed due to bad weather games in the opening two contests of 2022.

BetMGM books are reporting 54% of tickets on the Over while the handle is spilt 50/50 in terms of money on the Over/Under. Covers Consensus shows 53% of picks backing the Over.

Rams vs 49ers betting trend to know

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 23-19 SU and just 15-26-1 ATS as a betting favorite during this tenure in the Bay Area (since 2017). That includes a 3-9-1 ATS mark as a favorite in divisional games. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. 49ers.

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