Welcome to October football.
The fate of NFL bettors can change just as quickly as the autumn leaves, with a month’s worth of data points now coursing through the oddsmakers’ NFL power ratings.
Getting the best of your bookie often means getting the best of the number. That’s where I come in.
I put my finger on the pulse of the NFL gambling markets, predicting line movement and weighing public perception. I highlight some spreads and totals to add to your NFL picks right now and put a pin in some lines to bet later in the week.
Here are my “Bet Now, Bet Later” NFL Week 5 odds.
NFL predictions: Week 5 bet now, bet later picks
- Chiefs at Jaguars: Chiefs -3
- Giants (-2) at Saints: Bet Later
- Raiders at Colts (Over 48.5): Bet Now
- Patriots at Bills (Under 49.5): Bet Later
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Jaguars: Bet Now
To modify a quote from “John Wick”: Yeah, I’m thinking KC is back!
The Kansas City Chiefs let the AFC know that they’re still the conference champs with a shit kicking of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4.
Kansas City’s defense choked out the Ravens on crucial downs (Baltimore 4 for 14 on third/fourth down) and forced two takeaways. The 37-20 final isn’t even a good indicator as to how one-sided this one was, as Baltimore put up some positives in garbage time.
After a challenging start to 2025, the Chiefs have looked like Super Bowl contenders the past six quarters and now travel to Florida for a Monday Night Football matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville is coming off a weird win over San Francisco, in which it needed four takeaways and a punt return touchdown to squeak out a 26-21 victory. The Jags were outgained by the Niners, gave up 22 first downs, allowed an average of 6.2 yards per play, and were penalized for 90 yards on 12 flags. Yet, they enter Week 5 at 3-1 SU.
This is a notable coaching mismatch with Liam Coen and Anthony Campanile (even with all their "sign stealing" shenanigans) going up against Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo. Books opened Kansas City as a 3-point road favorite, and I’m snatching this key number up now before the nasty hook shows up later in the week.
Best odds to bet Chiefs -3 right now
New York Giants (-2) at New Orleans Saints: Bet Later
It’s win some, lose some for the G-Men. The New York Giants stunned the L.A. Chargers in Jaxson Dart’s debut on Sunday, but lost standout WR Malik Nabers for the season.
Now the Giants travel to the Big Easy as road favorites, but that spread is shrinking. Some books have already slipped to New York -1.5 with early play showing up on the New Orleans Saints.
New Orleans may be 0-4, but outside of a blowout loss at Seattle in Week 3, it has hung tough with opponents to start 2025. That includes giving the Bills everything they could handle through 51 minutes this Sunday, which is garnering some respect.
The Giants get a break in terms of QB competition in Week 5, taking on Spencer Rattler after facing the likes of Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Jayden Daniels to start the schedule. This New York defense — namely, the pass rush — is better than first glance.
If you like the G-Men in NOLA, wait and see if that early opinion and Nabers' injury drives it down to a pick’em later in the week.
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Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (Over 48.5): Bet Now
The Indianapolis Colts left plenty of points on the table in La-La Land on Sunday. More specifically, Adonai Mitchell did.
Indianapolis’ WR fumbled away an impressive catch-and-run TD at the goal line, which resulted in a touchback. Then he wiped a 53-yard Jonathan Taylor touchdown run from existence with a holding call.
Indianapolis lost 27-20, and the final score stayed Under the total of 50 points. Despite those blunders and three turnovers, the Colts still hung 333 yards on a very good Rams defense on the road.
Indy gets to come back to Lucas Oil in Week 5 for a potential shootout with the Silver and Black. Las Vegas is staggering after Chicago blocked a would-be game-winning field goal in Week 4. The Raiders amassed 357 yards but coughed the ball up four times, losing 25-24.
This total opened at 48.5 points, but the look-ahead number was 49.5 last week. You have two offenses that can hit big plays, both with the pass and the run, and they’re playing on the fast indoor track in Indy. I could see this climbing to 50 or higher later in the week.
Best odds to bet Raiders vs Colts Over 48.5 right now
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Under 49.5): Bet Later
Sunday Night Football belongs to the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots, and this primetime total seems a little lofty for my liking.
After New England crushed Carolina for 42 points in Week 4 — and Buffalo hung 31 on the Saints — oddsmakers had this number just below 50 points. The look-ahead line before the season started was 46.5 O/U, and now some shops are hanging this total at 50.5 points on Sunday night.
There’s no doubting the Bills’ offensive punch, but they have played some questionable defensive foes through the first four games. And New England has also exploited some piss-poor stop units in the opening month.
Divisional games are much tighter with both sides presenting plenty of tape. This AFC East rivalry usually draws a total of 44 points or fewer, and even with the offensive upgrades for the Pats under OC Josh McDaniels, I feel like this should be a 47.5-point total.
It seems to be going up as of Sunday night, so if you like the Under you can wait and see if it his the key of 51 points before buying back the movement.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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