Making your NFL Week 16 picks is exactly like shopping for the holidays.
When you see something cool that you know will be a touchdown of a gift, you grab it right away before it’s gone.
If you think something will go on sale before now and Christmas Day, you wait it out for a better price.
That’s essentially what I do with my NFL “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines each week. I highlight the spreads and totals that aren’t going to stick around and put a pin in some other NFL odds that could move to our advantage closer to kickoff.
Here are my NFL picks and Week 16 “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines.
NFL predictions: Week 16 bet now, bet later picks
- Eagles (-5.5) at Commanders: Bet Now
- Patriots (+2.5) at Ravens: Bet Later
- Buccaneers at Panthers (Over 45.5): Bet Now
- Jaguars at Broncos (Over 44.5): Bet Later
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Washington Commanders: Bet Now
Beating up on the Raiders only carries so much weight, but the Philadelphia Eagles' one-sided win over Las Vegas was exactly what they needed.
Philadelphia put up 31 points, 27 first downs, and 387 yards of offense. Now, it heads to the nation’s capital with momentum for the first time in weeks, laying just shy of the key number of six against the Washington Commanders on a rare Saturday game.
Washington beat the New York Giants despite being outgained and allowing 22 first downs. Six of its 29 points came from a punt return touchdown, making an otherwise ho-hum offensive effort look better than it was.
Philadelphia is hoping to get two key bodies back in the trenches, with OT Lane Johnson and DT Jalen Carter sitting out Sunday’s win. Any positive updates around those players will push this spread higher, so I’m snatching Eagles -5.5 now.
Best odds to bet Eagles -5.5 right now
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens: Bet Later
The New England Patriots looked like the best team in the AFC for about a half in Week 15 before blowing a 21-point cushion in a crushing home loss to the Bills.
New England has another stiff challenge in Week 16, traveling to face Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Baltimore hit the board as a 2.5-point home favorite, and the vig is trending upward, indicating a potential move to the key number of a field goal. If New England didn’t sour you on its validity, wait this one out and make sure you get Patriots +3.
New England still scored 31 points and amassed 385 yards on offense. Baltimore’s defense is just as bad as Buffalo’s, despite what a shutout of the Bengals may tell you.
New England is the toughest foe the Ravens have faced in a while, with Baltimore beating up on bad football teams and subpar QBs since Week 10.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Over 45.5): Bet Now
This is a massive matchup in the NFC South.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a mini-bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enter Week 16 with their full arsenal of offensive weapons.
The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3-for-3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense to the Falcons, who scored 29 points.
The Carolina Panthers defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans.
The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road.
This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes.
Best odds to bet Over 45.5 right now
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (Over 44.5): Bet Later
A possible playoff preview awaits in Week 16 with the Denver Broncos hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars in a battle of elite defenses.
The Broncos and Jaguars rank Top 10 in a bunch of the fancy defensive metrics, and the low opening total follows suit.
The number hit the board at 44.5 and is already trending toward 44 points or lower. The vig on the Under 44.5 is climbing, and some sharper books are already at 44 O/U. If Under money keeps coming, books won’t wait to dip below the key total of 44.
That move could open value for the Over in Week 16, especially if we see this slide to 43.5 O/U.
Denver and Jacksonville stacked plenty of offensive yards on Sunday. The Broncos broke off 34 points on close to 400 yards versus Green Bay, while the Jags flogged the Jets for 48 points and 438 yards of offense.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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