Thursday Night Football Computer Picks: Our Best Week 17 Player Prop Projections

The game might not be close, but our NFL player prop projections still found some value in players from both teams — including an Over for the Chiefs' third-string QB.

Jared Hochman - Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Jared Hochman • Content Manager
Dec 25, 2025 • 09:43 ET • 4 min read
Broncos vs Chiefs computer picks Chris Oladokun
Photo By - Imagn Images. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Chris Oladokun (19) passes during his NFL debut.

Happy Holidays! Nothing caps off a Christmas Day tripleheader like seeing Chris Oladokun in action as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos.

Nonetheless, our NFL player prop projections have picked out the best NFL Christmas Day prop values for this game — including the K.C. third-string QB going well beyond his projected passing yards. 

Broncos vs Chiefs computer picks for Thursday Night Football

Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs
Nix o13.5 rush
-110
Oladokun o152.5 pass
-110
Harvey o52.5 rush
-110
Pacheco o35.5 rush
-110
Sutton u 63.5 rec
-110
Hunt o18.5 rush
-110
Engram u28.5 rec
-110
Kelce u35.5 rec
-110
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Broncos TNF computer picks

Bo Nix Over 13.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 20.79 yards

Nix has double-digit rushing yards in each of his last four games, and we're projecting him to finish in the mid-teens again tonight.

Alternate-total bet
20+ yards (+170) - This price shows great value.

Bet Nix rushing yards now at bet365!

R.J. Harvey Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 66.55 yards

We're expecting the Denver rookie to put up another solid stat line in what should be a run-positive game script.

Alternate-total bet
60+ yards (+135) - This prop also shows phenomenal value.

Bet Harvey rushing yards now at bet365!

Courtland Sutton Under 63.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 53.8 yards

He's gone Under this number in five of his last seven games and with the Broncos likely leading big in the second half, we're expecting him to have a rather quiet game.

Bet Sutton receiving yards now at bet365!

Evan Engram Under 28.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 21.23 yards

The same rationale applies to the Denver TE, who has finished below this number in two of his last three.

Bet Engram receiving yards now at bet365!


More Thursday Night Football picks from Covers


Chiefs TNF computer picks

Chris Oladokun Over 152.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 191.08 yards

Oladokun logged 111 yards in relief duty in his NFL debut last week; we're projecting him to build on that and approach 200 yards tonight.

Alternate-total bet
175+ yards (+175) - This prop shows incredible value.

Bet Oladokun passing yards now at bet365!

Isaiah Pacheco Over 35.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 43.46 yards

We're projecting the Kansas City RB to finish just above his yardage total.

Bet Pacheco rushing yards now at bet365!

Kareem Hunt Over 18.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 30.84 yards

We're also expecting KC's other RB to go beyond his posted line, a number he easily cleared in six straight games before his workload was slashed over the past two weeks.

Alternate-total bet
30+ yards (+280) - This is the best value of any alt-total listed for this game.

Bet Hunt rushing yards now at bet365!

Travis Kelce Under 35.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 34.95 yards

In possibly the last high-profile game of his career, we're projecting Kelce to fall just short of his yardage total.

Bet Kelce receiving yards now at bet365!

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Jared Hochman Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Content Manager

Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King's College in, Halifax, N.S., "Hoch" brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers' NHL Puck Props. 

Awarded Covers' company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop, which is something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.

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