A 13.5-point spread and Chris Oladokun starting at quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs isn’t exactly what anyone had in mind for the NFL’s Christmas Day finale vs. the Denver Broncos, but this matchup still offers some intriguing betting angles.
My Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks point to the defenses being the driving force in this game.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, with the game airing on Prime Video on December 25.
Broncos vs Chiefs prediction
Broncos vs Chiefs best bet: Under 36.5 (-110)
I expect a strong bounce-back from the Kansas City Chiefs defense after its extremely poor showing against the Titans last week, especially given how dominant this unit has been at home, where they allow just 15 points per game.
Unlike last week, I think the effort will be there for the Chiefs given the game situation — it’s their last home game of the season in a standalone spot on Christmas night, with a chance to play spoiler vs. a division rival.
While the defense will have an opportunity to shine, it’s hard to see the Chiefs offense contributing much. They bordered on average at times with Patrick Mahomes, were outright awful with Gardner Minshew, and could take another step back with Chris Oladokun under center.
Oladokun was serviceable in relief during Week 16, but this is a significant jump in competition against a Denver Broncos defense that should also be motivated to respond after an uncharacteristic performance.
The Broncos gave up a season-high 34 points at home to the Jaguars last week, but that outing stands out as an outlier, given that they’ve held eight different opponents below 20 points this season.
That includes limiting a Mahomes-led Chiefs team to 19 points on November 16, and with the top seed in the AFC still up for grabs, Denver’s defense should be aggressive against Oladokun and a watered-down Kansas City offense.
The Broncos defense is elite in several key areas that directly limit scoring opportunities, including having the league’s second-best red-zone defense and the top-ranked third-down defense.
If the total of 37.5 feels low, it’s worth noting that three straight Chiefs games have stayed Under that number, producing an average combined score of just 31.3. Kansas City is on a major Under tear with it hitting in nine of their last 10 games.
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Broncos vs Chiefs TNF same-game parlay
Expect Isiah Pacheco to be heavily involved with an inexperienced quarterback at the helm for the Chiefs. Pacheco is coming off a game where he had 75 total rushing and receiving yards.
What really stood out in the performance was a season-high six catches off seven targets. This is a tough spot for the KC offense, so watch for them to keep it simple with a lot of runs and short passes on early downs.
Broncos vs Chiefs SGP
- Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown
- Isiah Pacheco 50+ rushing + receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: TEASER
This is an awful matchup for Oladokun to get his first career start. He'll likely be playing from behind with a lot of third-and-long passing situations.
Denver's defense is coming off a season-worst performance and should be in bully mode with plenty of opportunities to pick one off.
Broncos vs Chiefs SGP
- Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown
- Isiah Pacheco 50+ rushing + receiving yards
- Chris Oladokun 1+ interceptions
Broncos vs Chiefs odds
- Spread: Denver -13.5 (-110) | Kansas City +13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver -1200 | Kansas City +750
- Over/Under: Over 36.5 (-108) | Under 36.5 (-112)
Broncos vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 10 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Broncos vs Chiefs
| Location | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Thursday, December 25, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
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