Two teams battling for AFC playoff spots will square off on Sunday Night Football this week, as the Pittsburgh Steelers will face the LA Chargers at SoFi Stadium.
The Chargers are -2.5 betting favorites on the spread. There also many SNF props to bet on now at the best NFL betting sites.
Below, we will take a look at player prop projections for all of the top offensive players in this showdown. Our computer projects big statistical nights from Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Kimani Vidal and Ladd McConkey.
Steelers vs. Chargers computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Steelers |
 Chargers |
|---|---|
| Rodgers Over 210.5 passing yards -114 | Herbert Under 258.5 passing yards -115 |
| Warren Over 57.5 rushing yards -118 | Vidal Over 54.5 rushing yards -110 |
| Metcalf Over 48.5 receiving yards -111 | McConkey Over 63.5 receiving yards -115 |
| Freiermuth Over 19.5 receiving yards -118 | Gadsden Over 4.5 receptions -118 |
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Steelers SNF computer picks
Aaron Rodgers Over 210.5 passing yards (-114)
Computer projection: 245.5 passing yards
The Chargers have one of the better units in the league at defending the pass. Jim Harbaugh’s crew is allowing just 177.1 yards per game through the air.
Rodgers is having a fine season, sporting a 17:5 TD to INT ratio. That said, his passing yardage totals leave a lot to be desired. He has not thrown for over 250 yards in one game this season.
Last week against Indy, Rodgers passed for just 203 yards.
I’ll go against the computer and say Rodgers goes Under the number.
Jaylen Warren Over 57.5 rushing yards (-118)
Computer projection: 65.0 rushing yards
While the Chargers’ pass defense is solid, its run defense is decidedly mid.
LA ranks 17th in the NFL in rush yards allowed.
Meanwhile, Warren has carried the ball 13+ times in five of the seven games he’s played this season. That amount of work against a mediocre run defense should get him past 57.5 yards.
I’ll agree with my bot friend here and take the Over.
DK Metcalf Over 48.5 receiving yards (-111)
Computer projection: 61.4 receiving yards
Metcalf had one of the worst statistical games of his career last week, totaling just two catches on four targets for six receiving yards.
The last time Metcalf saw that few targets in a game, he responded with a 126-yard receiving performance. Here’s thinking Rodgers will do Metcalf a solid and throw his way early and often.
I again agree with the computer on the Over.
Pat Freiermuth Over 19.5 receiving yards (-118)
Computer Projection: 34.6 receiving yards
On October 16, Freiermuth exploded for 111 yards receiving. He’s been relatively quiet since, as he finished with three catches for 13 yards against the Packers, and then three catches for 27 yards against the Colts.
Fellow Steelers TE Jonnu Smith is getting just as many looks from Rodgers these days, so I don’t like the volume.
I’ll go against the computer and take Under 19.5 yards.
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Chargers SNF computer picks
Justin Herbert Under 258.5 passing yards (-115)
Computer Projection: 252.0 passing yards
The Steelers have allowed the most passing yards per game in the NFL. Here are the numbers for the last three quarterbacks Pittsburgh has faced:
- Daniel Jones: 342 yards
- Jordan Love: 360 yards
- Joe Flacco: 342 yards
Wowzah.
Herbert is more than capable of putting up a 300+ passing yard game in this one, let alone having a 259+ day.
I’ll take the Over all day, here. My AI friend disagrees.
Alternate-total bet
Justin Herbert 275+ passing yards: +148
Kimani Vidal Over 54.5 rushing yards (-110)
Computer projection: 59.0 rushing yards
Vidal is looking like the ultimate boom-or-bust running back. Here are his last four games:
- At Titans: 12 carries, 30 rushing yards
- Vs. Vikings: 23 carries, 117 rushing yards
- Vs. Colts: 9 carries, 20 rushing yards
- At Dolphins: 18 carries, 124 rushing yards
It may be another boom week as the Steelers' defense ranks 23rd in DVOA against the run.
I’ll agree with the computer and take the Over.
Ladd McConkey Over 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
Computer projection: 65.6 receiving yards
After a rather sluggish start to the season, McConkey has posted 67 or more yards receiving in three of his last four games. That includes a 100-yard receiving afternoon against the Dolphins.
As I said above, I like Herbert to have a big passing day, and plenty of those throws will head in McConkey’s direction.
I’ll again agree with my bot pal and take the Over.
Oronde Gadsden Over 4.5 receptions (-118)
Computer projection: 4.9 receptions
Herbert has looked Gadsden's way more and more over the past month. In the first three games of the season, Gadsden was targeted an average of 3.6 times per game. In the past four games, the rookie TE has been targeted an average of 6.7 times.
Again, I expect a big day from Herbert, so there should be plenty to go around. Gadsden should eat.
The computer and I both like the Over once again.
Not intended for use in MA.
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