NFL Picks Against the Spread for Both Conference Championship Games

Chris Vasile breaks down his favorite NFL picks against the spread for the AFC and NFC Championship games on Sunday.

Chris Vasile - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Vasile • Betting Analyst
Jan 20, 2026 • 14:24 ET • 4 min read
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) on the field.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) on the field.

It's Conference Championship Sunday in the NFL, and we've got two intriguing games on tap. We're coming off a 2-2 (should have been 3-1) Divisional Round weekend, so let's try to sweep the board on Sunday. 

My Conference Championship NFL picks against the spread give the edge to both visitors on January 25.  

Conference Championship picks against the spread

Matchup Pick
Patriots Patriots vs Texans Broncos Patriots (-5.5)
Rams Rams vs Panthers Seahawks Rams (+2.5)

Lines courtesy of FanDuel.

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Expert Conference Championship NFL ATS picks

Patriots vs Broncos ATS pick

AFC Championship ATS Pick
New England Patriots logo Patriots -5.5

The Denver Broncos find themselves in a tricky situation on Sunday. They'll be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham after Bo Nix suffered an ankle injury late in last week's Divisional Round game vs. Buffalo. 

Stidham — a former New England Patriots draft pick — has not thrown a pass since 2024, and will be under pressure all game long by a Patriots defense that ranks eighth in total yards allowed and forced the Texans into five turnovers. 

While the Broncos' defense gives the team a chance to keep this one close, Drake Maye has the offense humming right now, and I believe if the Pats can play clean football and not gift the Broncos short fields, they can cover this spread by reaching 21 points. 


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Rams vs Seahawks ATS pick

NFC Championship ATS Pick
Los Angeles Rams logo Rams +2.5

It's not that I think the Seattle Seahawks are a bad football team; I just think the Los Angeles Rams are better.

Yes, the Seahawks dominated an injury-ravaged 49ers side, and the Rams have looked suspect in both games so far, but I think the coaching edge and experience they possess are hard to ignore. 

They'll also finally get clear weather for this game (according to the early weather report), which will aid a pass-happy offense featuring two elite playmakers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams

I'm calling it now. The Rams pull off the upset, and Matthew Stafford gets another ring to cement his legacy. 

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Chris Vasile Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Chris Vasile has been in the betting industry for well over a decade, honing his craft as a writer, editor, and handicapper. Chris has contributed betting and non-betting content for online publications such as ProSportsDaily and The Hockey Writers, in addition to Covers. With a keen interest in soccer, Chris has been featured on Covers' 'Before You Bet', BetMGM Network, and SportsGrid. He also runs his own YouTube channel — Game Day Wagers.

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