Dinger Tuesday was good to me, with two of three cashing for +7 units and one step closer to digging out of what seemed like an impossible home run hole. MLB player props have been better for me in the summer months. Let's crush Wednesday.
It's not every week that I get to back two of the best NL bats at +EV prices, but why not get the two NL MVP frontrunners at good prices with plus matchups? The lefty-on-lefty situations are adding to the value and shouldn't concern bettors today in these two dinger props.
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Wednesday, August 12.
MLB home run props for today
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Shohei Ohtani
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Home run prediction: Shohei Ohtani (+276)
Shohei Ohtani for a homer at +250 or better is usually a price point for me, but it’s not something we see daily, with his average HR price closer to $2. I’m a Pete Crow-Armstrong guy all the way for NL MVP right now, but I’m willing to back Ohtani at this price against the Kansas City Royals and their bullpen.
Lefty Daniel Lynch is getting the start, which is why the price is higher with the lefty-on-lefty matchup. However, Lynch threw just 35 pitches and recorded five outs in his last turn, his first start of the season, before handing things over to the relievers. Kansas City currently has no left-handed options in its bullpen, which sets up well for Ohtani later in the game.
Since 2024, 71% of Ohtani’s home runs have come against right-handed pitching, so the matchup gets considerably better once the Royals go to their right-handed relievers.
Dodger Stadium is also a favorable home run environment, with some of the shortest fence distances in MLB. THE BAT has the fair price all the way down to +220.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Royals.TV
Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+344)
This is a huge outlier price at Polymarket. I hit this winner last night at +325, and tonight’s matchup is just as good, with a fair price of +260.
Pete Crow-Armstrong launched a 111-mph missile last night and has moved to -125 as the NL MVP betting favorite. He saw Jake Irvin last night but can do some damage against the Washington Nationals and rookie left-hander Jackson Kent, who is making his first MLB start.
The southpaw started the year at Double-A and is getting the promotion after Zack Littell was finally designated for assignment. Kent was a strikeout-per-inning pitcher at Triple-A this year but also allowed eight home runs over 63-plus frames. He’s tough on lefties from a batting average perspective, but left-handed hitters have taken him deep at a rate similar to righties.
Nothing cute here — just backing a great bat in a great spot at a great price with my MLB picks.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Marquee Sports Network
- HR picks: 29-149, -10.43 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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