New England heads to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 1 at 1:25 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 44.5.
My Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction focuses on Miami’s remarkable home success in this series and two angles worth targeting.
For more plays across the league, check out the latest NFL picks for Week 8.
Patriots vs Dolphins predictions
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Early Patriots vs Dolphins spread pick: Dolphins +7.5
Give me the Miami Dolphins at +7.5, playable down to +6.5.
I'm not concerned about Miami winning its first game last week because the Dolphins have played one of the toughest schedules in the league this season, facing four teams currently leading their divisions.
Miami is due for positive regression, ranking as the second-unluckiest team in the NFL through the first seven weeks.
Nevertheless, this is more of a fade of the New England Patriots in this spot. New England is just 3-10 straight-up and against the spread in its last 13 visits to South Florida, with an average spread differential of -5.7 points. That trend dates back to the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.
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Early Patriots vs Dolphins total pick: Over 44.5
I lean to the Over 44.5 since the Over has cashed in three consecutive head-to-head meetings.
New England's offensive line has a significant edge in the trenches, and Miami's rushing attack gives me confidence it can chip in on the Over.
The Patriots are 6-2 to the Over against AFC East opponents since the start of last season, clearing the total by an average of 6.1 points. New England has also gone Over in four straight games, while Miami has done so in its last two, averaging 24.5 ppg in those contests.
My prediction: Patriots 25, Dolphins 21.
Patriots vs Dolphins odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Patriots vs Dolphins spread: Patriots -7.5
- Patriots vs Dolphins moneyline: Patriots 78%, Dolphins 25%
- Patriots vs Dolphins Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Patriots vs Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, 1:25 p.m. ET
- City: Miami Gardens, FL
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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