Patrick Mahomes Odds and Props for Week 2: Quality Over Quantity

Patrick Mahomes and the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs stumbled out of the gate in Week 1 after losing to the Detroit Lions. They were noticeably without some juice on both sides of the ball, with Travis Kelce out with a bone bruise and Chris Jones holding out. 

Both return this week for the Week 2 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a rematch from last year's playoffs. Can Mahomes and company put their foot down once again on the Jaguars and make up for last week's loss?

The NFL odds tab the Chiefs as -3 point road favorites with the total sitting at 51.

We break down the Patrick Mahomes odds, and give our best free NFL picks, for Chiefs vs. Jaguars.

Patrick Mahomes Week 2 prop picks

• Under 37.5 pass attempts
• Under 37.5 pass attempts + Toney Under 2.5 receptions + Moore Over 34.5 yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes Week 2 prop pick

Under 37.5 pass attempts (-110 at DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes will always be Mahomes, but last year he looked a bit pedestrian. He went just 21-for-39 for 226 yards and had two touchdowns and an interception, and the result was a 20-21 loss to the Detroit Lions. Granted he was without Travis Kelce, and Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore put up some staggeringly horrible performances in his absence.

With Kelce returning to the lineup, the hope is the Chiefs' offense can look more in line with years past as opposed to whatever was on the field last week. But regardless of how effective they are, there seems to be some value potential in Mahomes' pass attempt prop which as of this writing is set at 37.5.

Last year Mahomes went under that mark in 11 of his 20 combined games (both regular season and playoffs). Furthermore, he went under that mark in both games he played against the Jaguars. In fact in the 18 games against anyone but the Jaguars the Chiefs ran the ball 24.6 times and passed 37.9 times per game. In their two games against the Jaguars (Week 10 and the Divisional round), they ran the ball 28.5 times (+15.9%) and passed 32.5 times (-14.2%).

Prop: Under 37.5 pass attempts (-110 at DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes Week 2 same-game parlay

Mahomes Under 37.5 passing attempts
Toney Under 2.5 receptions
Moore Over 31.5 receiving yards

+650 at bet365

If we choose to take the Under on Mahomes' pass attempts, it may make sense to eye an under for a wide receiver. The first that comes to mind is Kadarius Toney, who may surrender snaps and opportunities to other wideouts after last week's comedic performance. His receptions line is set at 2.5, yet he has eclipsed that mark just three times in the 10 games he’s played as a Chief.

His opportunities may get dispersed to the likes of rookie Rashee Rice, who had three catches on five targets for 29 yards and a touchdown. But an even sneakier play is Skyy Moore, who had zero catches on three targets despite tying the team lead in routes run.

Most Moore supporters are ready to jump off of the bandwagon after last week's dud, and despite the fact that we hit his yardage under last week, we believe this week is the perfect time to buy low on the second-year wide receiver. His line of 34.5 is 15 yards lower than his opening total last week, offering some cushion on the still-presumed No. 2 wide receiver opposite Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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