Packers vs Dolphins Week 16 Props: Waddlin All the Way to the End Zone

One of the legends of the game will take on one of the hottest young quarterbacks in the league on Sunday when Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers take on the Miami Dolphins.

Miami can’t quite clinch a playoff spot this week, but a win would put it in a prime position to snag a Wild Card spot in the AFC. Meanwhile, Green Bay is on life support at 6-8, but has stayed alive thanks to a rejuvenated offense that is finally scoring points after struggling for much of the season.

How will Rodgers and Tagovailoa perform on Sunday afternoon? I’ll break it down with my favorite NFL player prop picks for the Christmas Day game between the Packers and the Dolphins. Be sure to also check out our Packers vs. Dolphins betting picks and predictions.

Packers vs Dolphins prop picks

• Rodgers Under 250.5 passing yards (-115)
• Tagovailoa Over 1.5 passing TDs (-140)
• Waddle anytime TD (+150)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Packers vs Dolphins Week 16 props

Silent night

A lot has been made of the improving Green Bay offense, which has averaged 26.6 points per game over the past five weeks after failing to score more than 27 in any game before then. However, while Aaron Rodgers’ improved play is a part of the story, the gameplan hasn’t revolved around the quarterback during this more productive stretch.

Rodgers hasn’t thrown for more than 229 yards in any of his past five games, and is averaging 200.4 passing yards per game in that stretch. That’s a marked downturn for a quarterback who was still slinging the ball around the field for much of the year, even if it wasn’t resulting in a ton of points. 

That’s not to say that Rodgers isn’t finding his spots. He’s thrown for nine touchdowns over this period, so I won’t bet against him finding the end zone against a mediocre Miami pass defense that gives up an average of 6.6 yards per attempt through the air.

On the other hand, I’m happy to bet that Rodgers won’t suddenly revert to his gunslinging ways and post one of his most prolific passing performances of the season. Rodgers has thrown for Over 250 yards only three times this year, and over 255 only once, in a 15-9 loss to the Detroit Lions. Neither Rodgers nor head coach Matt LaFleur will be eager to repeat that performance.

Yet despite that, sportsbooks have set Rodgers’ passing yardage prop at an astronomical 250.5 yards. This doesn’t make sense for Rodgers or the Packers right now, and the Miami defense can’t be the reason for going that high. The Dolphins have only given up 246.3 yards per game through the air — one of the higher numbers in the NFL to be sure, but still below the prop number for a quarterback who normally goes for far less. 

I expect Rodgers to be efficient, not to put up gaudy numbers on Sunday. The Under is a safe bet, and it may not even be close unless Miami opens up a big lead early.

Aaron Rodgers Prop: Under 250.5 passing yards (-115)

Throw Tua Throw

Tua Tagovailoa may be a Pro Bowl snub, but there’s no denying that he has been one of the best quarterbacks in all of football this year. Despite missing three games this year due to concussion, he is among the league leaders in touchdowns thrown with 24, while only giving up five interceptions.

The Dolphins are currently in the midst of a three-game losing streak, and that includes a couple of stinkers from Tagovailoa. He had rough outings against both the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Chargers, and came up just short last weekend against the Buffalo Bills. Yet even in those performances, he threw for five touchdowns — hitting the two-touchdown mark twice.

Tagovailoa has managed to throw for two or more touchdowns five times in eight appearances since coming off the injured list. He has never failed to throw for a score in that period, and has tossed a total of 16 touchdowns cpmpared to just two interceptions over that time. 

At a glance, it might seem like Green Bay is a team that could slow down that production. The Packers give up just 185.1 yards per game through the air, the second-lowest figure in the NFL. But that’s mostly because teams haven’t had to throw the ball all that much against Green Bay this season. The Packers are allowing 6.8 yards per attempt, which is only 19th-best in the NFL — hardly the sign of an elite secondary. 

Green Bay gives up 22.4 points per game, and Pro Football Focus rates its secondary at ninth in the NFL — good, but not elite. Given how prolific Tagovailoa has been when healthy this year, I expect him to throw for two touchdowns or more at home in the mild Miami weather. I’m taking Over 1.5 on Tagovailoa’s passing touchdown prop.

Tua Tagovailoa Prop: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140)

Waddle wonderland

I’ve already established that Tagovailoa is lined up for a big game on Sunday. That makes me interested in targeting one of his top receivers for a touchdown prop as well. And while Tyreek Hill is usually the go-to name in the Miami offense, I’m looking at the No. 2 receiver to do some damage this week.

Jaylen Waddle has been nearly as prolific as Hill this year. He has caught 62 balls for 1,117 yards, and has scored seven touchdowns so far — the same number as Hill. While Waddle has only scored once in his last five games, that score came in his most recent outing against the Bills.

Waddle continues to see targets from Tagovailoa, getting at least five looks in eight of his last nine games. He’s also a big play threat, catching a ball of at least 25 yards in seven of his last nine outings. Even if Waddle’s production hasn’t been outstanding in recent weeks, the opportunities are there, as he proved against Buffalo.

Of course, Hill is getting even more love from Tagovailoa and remains the centerpiece of the Dolphins' offense. So why target Waddle? That comes down to the odds offered on each player. Bet on Hill to score a touchdown, and you won’t even be able to get even money, with many books offering numbers of -130 or higher. 

But look at Waddle, and we can book +150 for him to reach the end zone. Considering both receivers have reached the end zone seven times this year, and both scored last week, that’s a difference in price I don’t want to ignore. I’m backing Waddle to get another touchdown on Christmas.

Jaylen Waddle Prop: Anytime touchdown (+150)

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