A big Week 13 slate wraps with a non-conference contest on Monday Night Football. The New England Patriots try to pull away from the pack in the AFC when they host the spiralling New York Giants.
New York’s six-game losing skid cost defensive coordinator Shane Bowen his job on Monday morning after the team blew another lead in an OT loss to Detroit.
Meanwhile, New England’s red-hot nine-game run has Mike Vrabel set as the odds-on favorite to win Coach of the Year in his first season in Foxborough.
I analyze the opening odds and line movement as well as give my early Giants vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks for Monday, December 1.
Giants vs Patriots predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early MNF spread pick: New York Giants +7.5
The difference in direction of these two teams has the New England Patriots laying more than a touchdown at home on Monday night.
Books opened the New York Giants +7.5, padded heavily with the vig as high as -120, but that has started to slim with money on the home side. Just how far this runs by MNF remains to be seen. A move to -8 would quickly invite a move to -8.5.
New York has walked a painful path this season with numerous blown leads late in games. That was mainly due to the defense buckling in the championship rounds, allowing a league-worst 11.1 points per fourth quarter.
Those late-game no-shows forced the franchise to axe Bowen, which could provide a bit of a “dead cat bounce” for the G-Men on Monday night. New York’s pass rush runs hot and cold, but it can get after New England QB Drake Maye, as his offensive line could be down a couple of starters on the left side.
Mix in some winter weather and the always dangerous arm of Jameis Winston, and I could see the Giants staying within this sizable spread.
Early MNF total pick: Under 46.5
This is an interesting total as you have two quarterbacks who have no issues launching the ball downfield. Maye has made New England the most explosive offense in the NFL, and since taking over the starting gig, Winston has given the Giants a shot in the arm.
That said, the Patriots will likely opt to keep it simple against a terrible New York run defense. New England has a deep rushing attack and just watched Detroit march up and down the field for 237 yards on the ground.
As I mentioned, I believe the Giants’ pass rush can exploit Maye’s dinged-up protection, which won’t allow enough time in the pocket for those deeper strikes to develop. A run-heavy playbook from the Pats would shorten gains and keep the clock ticking.
Gillette Stadium could also be a mess on Monday night. Some extended forecasts are calling for a winter mix (rain and snow), wind gusts around 20 mph, and temperatures that “feel like” 26 degrees.
As the weather outlook gets more predictable later in the week, we could see this total move again. It’s just short of the key number of 47 points. If this clears up for MNF, expect that number to go to 47.5. If not, we could see it sink to 46 or lower.
Giants vs Patriots odds
- Giants vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -7.5
- Giants vs. Patriots moneyline: Giants +313, Patriots -386
- Giants vs. Patriots Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Giants vs Patriots
- Giants vs. Patriots matchup
- Date: Monday, December 1, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Foxborough
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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