Giants vs Dolphins Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Miami's Hot Streak Continues Behind Tua, Waddle

At long last, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has seemingly found a groove behind center. The Fins are looking to capitalize on his strong play to beat the New York Giants for their fifth straight win. Check our NFL betting picks for more.

Last Updated: Dec 4, 2021 6:26 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins NFL
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The New York Giants travel to Miami this Sunday to face the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Both teams have struggled at times this year but things are looking up. The Giants have Saquon Barkley back and the Dolphins have won four on the bounce. If you’re wagering on this game then you’ll need our NFL betting picks and predictions for Giants vs. Dolphins.

Giants vs Dolphins odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

We’ve seen huge movement already since the initial lines dropped. The Dolphins opened as 2.5-point favorites, but they've since doubled to 5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the total points line has dropped from 43.5 to 40.5 in that timeframe.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Giants vs Dolphins predictions

Predictions made on 12/01/2021 at 9:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Giants vs Dolphins game info

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Date: Sunday, December 5, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Giants at Dolphins betting preview

Weather

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Key injuries

Giants: Sterling Shepard WR (Out), Kadarius Toney WR (Doubtful), Adoree' Jackson CB (Out), Daniel Jones QB (Out), Wes Martin OG (Out), Oshane Ximines LB (Out), Kyle Murphy OL (Out), Jabrill Peppers S (Out), Quincy Wilson CB (Out).
Dolphins: Phillip Lindsay RB (Out), Adam Shaheen TE (Out), Darius Hodge LB (Out), John Jenkins DT (Out), Brandon Jones S (Out), Trill Williams S (Out), Elijah Campbell DB (Out), Allen Hurns WR (Out), Greg Little T (Out), DeVante Parker WR (Out), Will Fuller WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Dolphins are 4-0-1 against the spread in their past five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Dolphins.

Giants vs Dolphins picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

It’s taken a while, but it finally feels like these teams are starting to get things together. The Giants are still rock bottom in the NFC East with a 4-7 record, but they’ve got Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay back from injury. There were high hopes for both players this season but Barkley has struggled for fitness and Golladay hasn’t fit the ground running like he was expected to as a big free-agent signing.  

The Dolphins, too, are moving in the right direction. It wasn’t long ago that they sat on a 1-7 record and Brian Flores was on the hot seat. A run of four straight wins has helped alleviate the pressure on the head coach. Not only that, but that run coincides with Tua Tagovailoa finding some form. Now the Dolphins have a chance to push on and finish the season in style. 

It’s been an incredibly tough couple of months for Tagovailoa. He’s struggled with injury at various points and has also played below his capabilities. These struggles also coincided with speculation about the Dolphins potentially trading for Deshaun Watson. Despite all that, Tua has remained strong and has played well in his last three games. He’s thrown for three TDs and one interception, and his quarterback rating hasn’t dropped below 104.0, an improvement over his career averages to date. 

That’s not to say the offense has been brilliant, though. They rank 26th in offensive DVOA, below the likes of the Jaguars and Jets, but things have improved. Their past three games saw them score 33, 24, and 22 points, respectively. That’s a massive improvement from the beginning of the season when the Fins only exceeded 20 points once in their first five games. 

It’s still not the most exciting attack. Jaylen Waddle may have broken out, but besides the former ‘Bama man there’s very little to enjoy. Lead back Myles Gaskin is average at best and the receiver corps have also struggled to stay on the field. Tagovailoa has improved, but he’s still far more comfortable with short passing and is far below league average in nearly every metric around passes over 20 yards. He does seem to be improving as a game manager, though, and is clearly making smart decisions. 

He faces a Giants defense that is sneaky good. They’re ranked 9th in the league in weighted defensive DVOA, which is a lot higher than you’d expect from a team with their record, but the struggles have largely been on offense. This is a good defense that will cause problems for anybody, and they’ve shown that this year limiting Jalen Hurts last Sunday as well as the likes of Patrick Mahomes in recent weeks. 

However, the Giants offense continues to struggle and is ranked even lower than the Dolphins in offensive DVOA. They average just 317.5 yards per game and have been unable to consistently put up big numbers this season with only six teams scoring less per game. 

Quarterback Daniel Jones has been week-to-week with his neck injury, but Ian Rapoport reported that he’s likely to be sidelined against Miami, making way for Mike Glennon behind center. Jones is not a great QB but he’s still better than Glennon, which helps explain why the line has moved the Dolphins from -2.5 to -5.0. 

With a backup QB leading the team on the road, and the Gaints being careful with Saquon Barkley’s return to the team, it makes sense to back the Dolphins. 

Prediction: Dolphins -5 (-105)

Tagovailoa may have improved but he’s a cautious game manager, not a gunslinger. That combined with the injury to Giants QB Jones has seen the total points line slide three points to 40.5 Despite that very low total, the Under still makes sense here. These are two offenses at the lower end of the scale in terms of ability and dynamism.  

The Under is 6-0 in the Giants' past six games after allowing 15 points in their previous game and 4-0 in the Giants past four December clashes. The Under has also hit in four of the Dolphins' past five games.  

Prediction: Under 40.5 (-110)

Jaylen Waddle has played well and has been among the best rookie wideouts since Week 1, when he went for 61 yards and scored a touchdown against the Patriots. Despite that, it was only last Sunday when he truly broke out. He turned nine receptions into 137 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers and showed just why the Dolphins drafted him sixth overall in this year’s draft.

He’s made 77 receptions on 103 targets in his 12 games this year, averaging 8.5 targets per game and 6.4 receptions. Over the past five weeks, he’s been targeted more and more frequently, with his nine receptions on Sunday being a highlight.

It’s clear that he’s the most talented skill position player on this Dolphins team, and the chemistry between him and Tagovailoa has grown. You can expect him to go Over his reception total against the Giants.

Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 5.5 receptions (-130)

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