Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid have the Kansas City Chiefs right back in the Super Bowl mix after one down season, and we're seeing a probability in the Super Bowl futures market that we're going to have to place a trade on.
Taylor Swift was pointing to her ring after Kelce made a play on the field, and Kelce might be getting Swift another ring if they keep playing the way they have to start the season. The Chiefs are a model of stability with their coaching staff, as Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, and Eric Bieniemy are back together, and it's paying dividends early in the season.
I'm willing to place a trade that Kelce will get Swift another ring this year with the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — sitting at 7%.
Each week, my NFL Futures Fund will identify the teams and players worth buying, fading, holding, or targeting as long shots based on the latest NFL odds.
NFL Week 3 futures portfolio strategy
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, use our odds converter.
| Future |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Chiefs
Super Bowl Buy
|
7% |
 Cowboys
NFC East Fade
|
30% |
 Lions
Super Bowl Hold
|
3% |
 Trevor Lawrence
NFL MVP Long shot
|
4% |
How the NFL Futures Fund works
Buy: A future we're adding at its current price
Fade: A team or player we believe is overpriced
Hold: An existing position where the original thesis remains intact
Long Shot: A high-upside future available at a big price
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Buy: Chiefs to win Super Bowl
- Kalshi probability: 7%
- Key metric: Projected win probability is 9.2%
- Next catalyst: Week 3 vs. Dolphins
There are two things strongly at play here for the position we're going to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. First, there's a probability gap in their overall market price. They're trading at 7% to win the Super Bowl, but I have them priced closer to 9.2%.
The primary reason for my higher projection is their soft schedule. They're playing a third-place schedule, which is something you rarely see for Patrick Mahomes and company.
While the schedule affects their overall projection, I'm hitting the button after Week 2. The Chiefs travel to Miami, then head to Las Vegas before their bye week. It's very possible that by the end of Week 5, the Chiefs are sitting at 4-0.
A 4-0 Chiefs team with Mahomes at quarterback and Andy Reid running the show is a narrative the market can easily get behind as a potential Super Bowl winner. I think that creates an opportunity to either hold your position at a better-than-market price or sell for a profit.
Fade: Cowboys to win NFC East
- Kalshi probability: 30%
- Key concern: Projected win probability is 26.3%
- Next catalyst: Week 3 vs. Ravens
The Dallas Cowboys trading at 30% to win the NFC East is a fallout of the Jaxson Dart injury for the New York Giants, with the knee injury potentially being worse than initially thought and season-ending surgery now an option.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they already lost to the Giants, with Dart, in Week 1. This creates a scenario where the Eagles' schedule gets significantly easier compared to the Cowboys because they won't face the Giants with Dart, and their first matchup against New York isn't until Week 9. By that point, the Giants could be well out of the race and a much different team.
Not only is the Cowboys' probability to win the NFC East trading at too high a number right now, but in Week 3, they're also home underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens, who are coming off a loss to the New Orleans Saints.
The Cowboys aren't at a price you want to invest in ahead of Week 3. I don't anticipate that number getting higher with the Ravens on deck, especially with the Eagles playing the Chicago Bears (likely without Caleb Williams). That's another break in the Eagles' schedule.
Hold: Lions to win Super Bowl
- Kalshi probability: 3%
- Key metric: Projected probability is still higher than our initial buy point of 4%
- Next catalyst: Week 3 vs. Jets
I'm not thrilled with the injury to Avonte Maddox. A depleted secondary for the Detroit Lions takes another hit with Maddox out for the season with a foot injury. But this is the part of the Lions' schedule that had me interested in their Super Bowl price in the first place.
The Lions will face the New York Jets, then play the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals on the road, followed by a bye week. The Lions are trading at 3%, and we bought them at 4%. They should be able to come out of these next four weeks with a probability higher than the number we purchased, especially with the Bears taking a step back following the Caleb Williams injury.
The Williams injury, and every game the Bears lose without him, increases the probability of the Lions winning the division and making the playoffs. That ultimately improves their odds to win the Super Bowl.
It's a hold, but it's a hold with the intention of selling the position for a profit in the near future rather than holding it for the rest of the regular season.
Long shot: Trevor Lawrence to win NFL MVP
- Kalshi probability: 4%
- Upside metric:
- Next catalyst: Week 3 vs. Patriots
I highlighted this in an NFL MVP article I wrote following Week 2. To me, Trevor Lawrence was one of the best buy-low spots following the injuries we saw at quarterback and how the market reacted to his Week 2 performance against the Denver Broncos.
His price initially dropped to 2%, which would have moved Lawrence into my buy category. I would have been all over that probability, but 4% is much closer to my projection while still showing an edge.
Keep an eye on Lawrence and his price. Nobody expected him to go into Denver and light up that defense at altitude. What we do know is that gead coach Liam Coen can call an offense, and Lawrence gets to play a significant number of games in warm weather or indoors. He also isn't facing a gauntlet of tough teams within his division — in fact, quite the opposite.
My NFL futures portfolio tracker
The Kenneth Walker buy has us sitting in a great spot. He rushed for 117 yards in Week 2, now has 290 rushing yards on the season, and needs to average just 64 rushing yards per game over his next 15 games to eclipse 1,250 rushing yards.
The Lions are down 1% from our buy point, but that doesn't concern me all that much. I'd obviously prefer to see them higher than 4%, but with the schedule they have in front of them, I still have them projected to win the Super Bowl 5.1% of the time. I think, at the very least, they give us a chance to sell our position in the near future for a small profit.
Malik Nabers for Comeback Player of the Year is a tough one for us. He was trading at 9% heading into Week 2 and has dropped all the way to 1% following his poor performance, but the Jaxson Dart injury is really our main issue here. We're not going to sell at 1%. We're going to have to hope Jameis Winston bombards him with targets over the next couple of games and gives us a chance to sell this position for less of a loss than we'd take at 1%.
The table below tracks when each future entered the portfolio and how its price has moved since it was added.
| Future | Week added | Position | Entry / Current |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Chiefs |
Week 3 | Buy | 7% |
| Kenneth Walker 1,250+ rushing yards |
Week 2 | Hold | 58%/75% |
| Lions Super Bowl |
Week 1 | Hold | 4%/3% |
| Malik Nabers NFL Comeback Player of the Year |
Week 1 | Hold | 4%/1% |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
