Tonight’s NFC showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears lost a lot of its hype when QB Caleb Williams went down for the home team.
That shifted the outright winner markets for Monday Night Football, leading me to my Eagles vs. Bears moneyline pick for Sept. 28.
For more NFL picks, check out our complete Eagles vs. Bears predictions.
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Eagles vs. Bears moneyline odds and pick
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Eagles |
65% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Game overview
Date: Sept. 28, 2026
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Stadium: Soldier Field, Chicago
TV: ESPN
Broadcast Team: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
The case for the Eagles moneyline
The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense is licking its chops against Chicago Bears third-string backup QB Case Keenum. On offense, Philly will have star RB Saquon Barkley in action after he left with a stinger in Week 2.
The case for the Bears moneyline
The Bears have a solid offensive line and a capable run game that can help take pressure off Keenum. Chicago also faces an Eagles offense that has sputtered under a new OC, rating poorly in success rate and first downs.
Eagles vs. Bears moneyline pick and confidence level
I’m giving Vic Fangio the nod against a veteran backup. The Eagles defense gets great pressure with a four-man rush, and Fangio’s disguised coverage confuses even the best passers. That will set the offense up for great field position, taking a win in the Windy City.
Pick: Eagles (65%)
Confidence: 🔨 Strong
COVERS INTEL: Fangio’s schemes rarely blitz yet generate the seventh-highest pressure rate and third-best hurry rate. Keenum hasn’t seen regular-season action since 2023, and this 38-year-old's legs are less than mobile.What are prediction markets?
A prediction market allows you to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a future event. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets. Most prediction market apps allow users to "buy an outcome" for between 1 cent and $1.
The $1.00 rule: The foundation of prediction markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, NFL prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the Chicago Bears to beat the Detroit Lions is trading at $0.51, the market believes they have a 51% chance of victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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