There's a lot to unpack on Monday night with all the injuries on both sides and Case Keenum getting the start, but that's just giving some anytime touchdown value to the players who might have expanded roles ahead of Eagles vs. Bears, which wraps up Week 3.
These are my Eagles vs. Bears anytime touchdown predictions and NFL picks for Monday, Sept. 28.
Best Eagles vs Bears anytime touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Johnny Mundt |
13% |
 D'Andre Swift |
40% |
| First TD: Jalen Hurts |
11% |
| Long shot: EJ Jenkins |
4% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Eagles touchdown pick: Johnny Mundt
I got this at 7.85x on Friday before the injury report. Dallas Goedert is going to miss time with what is being reported as an MCL sprain, There are some key figures of this offense missing or banged up in a matchup against the Chicago Bears, who gave up 37 points in Week 1 and are likely down to QB3 on the depth chart.
Johnny Mundt is going to eat snaps with two other TEs on IR in Grant Calcaterra and Eli Stowers. Former Eagle Zach Ertz was signed this week because of the lack of depth. Mundt was targeted on three of his 19 routes against the Titans in Week 2 and could see five or six targets if things fall his way.
No TE1 should be longer than 4.5x, and I'm not buying the Zach Ertz hype.
Bears touchdown pick: D'Andre Swift
With Case Keenum under center, it's a downgrade across the board for all Chicago pass catchers, but D'Andre Swift is set up for a big game and plenty of volume.
He's already gotten eight of the 11 running back red-zone carries this year, turning two into touchdowns, while adding two more red-zone targets.
Kyle Monangai was on the injury report earlier this week, so the 70/30 backfield split should remain around that rate against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are allowing over 100 rushing yards per game, plus another 30 receiving yards on average, to opposing running backs.
This is a good price for a red-zone running back who could see even more volume with a backup QB. I'd play this to 2.25x.
First touchdown scorer pick: Jalen Hurts
If I'm going first TD, I'm going with the favorite and landing on Jalen Hurts at 11%, which I'm playing to 12.5%.
Saquon Barkley might not be at 100% after a stinger in Week 2 that cost him some snaps. The other Philadelphia running backs were also on the injury report earlier this week, so perhaps Jalen Hurts gets his number called in tight on Monday night.
All three Philly backs have at least two red-zone carries through two weeks, and the loss of Dallas Goedert really hurts this offense in the red zone, as he was the most-targeted pass catcher inside the 20 to date. It's a tough offense to figure out when it comes to red-zone roles, so I'm rolling with Hurts in prime time.
Long-shot touchdown pick: EJ Jenkins
The Eagles are without tight ends Dallas Goedert and Grant Calcaterra. EJ Jenkins went from one snap in Week 1 to 25 last week after the Goedert injury.
Jenkins could see around 30% of the snaps in this game and could have a role in some heavy sets near the goal line. You'll find it tough to find a longer shot than Jenkins, and with Ertz just signing, I doubt he plays the second-most snaps at the position in Week 3.
There is a path for Jenkins to play a good amount of snaps, which is all you want with these long shots.
Eagles vs Bears touchdown combo
Jalen Hurts
Case Keenum
It's another crack at the double QB touchdown for Monday night, and this one might be the biggest thanks to Case Keenum being better than 10/1 himself. I already have Hurts for the first TD, as the red-zone options are lighter without Dallas Goedert.
Case Keenum obviously has the trust of Ben Johnson with Tyson Bagent dealing with a concussion. Keenum isn't allergic to the red zone over his long career, as he has six rushing TDs to his name.
- TD picks: 9-20, +5.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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