My Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction examines why Malik Willis and De'Von Achane can help Miami stay within the number as 3.5-point underdogs against Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium (aka the Big Roomba) this afternoon.
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX — be sure to check out the rest of my NFL picks for this Week 1 showdown.
Top Pick
Dolphins vs Raiders prediction: Dolphins +3.5
My fair price is the Miami Dolphins +2 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1.
I’d make these teams a pick ‘em on a neutral field, and frankly, I’m being generous by giving the Raiders a 2-point boost for home-field advantage.
The narrative in the NFL community seems to be that the Dolphins’ roster is much worse than the Raiders’, which breaks my brain. Especially now that Las Vegas will be without its only game-breaker, All-Pro TE Brock Bowers.
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane is the most dangerous weapon on the field. Also, Raiders Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby is the best defensive player in this game, but they’ve been a bad defense for most of his career, so it’s not like he makes that big of a difference.
More importantly, Vegas decided to start QB Kirk Cousins instead of rookie QB Fernando Mendoza, the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and Cousins is too old to play in the NFL. Plus, the Raiders are one of the most-picked teams in Week 1.
Simply put, the Raiders shouldn’t be 3.5-point favorites over any NFL team.
COVERS INTEL: Raiders QB Kirk Cousins ranked 29th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in passer rating last season while playing for the Atlanta Falcons.
Dolphins vs Raiders combo
Since Willis is a dual-threat quarterback and the Dolphins will need him to use his legs, and Cousins is one of the most risk-averse passers in the league, I'm mixing a couple of their props into my 10x combo.
For reasons I'll elaborate on below, I'm banking on Miami dialing up run plays in the red zone for Willis, and Cousins will do what he does best Sunday: Check down for easy completions rather than air it out.
Dolphins vs Raiders combo
- Dolphins +3.5
- Malik Willis anytime touchdown
- Kirk Cousins Over 19.5 completions
Dolphins vs Raiders touchdown scorer: Malik Willis
Keep in mind, passing touchdowns don’t count in this market for quarterbacks. They either need to run for one, which is obviously far likelier, or catch a TD pass.
That said, first-year Miami QB Malik Willis is going to have a lot on his plate in this offense, and he’s one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL.
In his six career NFL starts, Willis has four rushing touchdowns (scored over three games). Also, Achane is great in the open field and in the pass game, but he’s slight and injury-prone, so Willis could get goal-line carries.
Meanwhile, the Raiders allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks last season, and didn't make any major upgrades to their defense this offseason.
Dolphins vs Raiders player prop: Kirk Cousins Over 19.5 completions
One of my biggest criticisms of Cousins throughout his career is that he doesn't take enough chances. Obviously, you don't want your QB turning the ball over, but Cousins will consistently throw short of the first-down marker on third down.
While that doesn't help the Raiders, or his previous teams, win, it does help us with this prop. Moreover, Cousins gets rid of the ball even quicker now that he's 38 years old, so I'm envisioning a bunch of check-downs to running backs in the flat. Plus, the Dolphins don't exactly have a lockdown secondary.
Cousins completed 21+ passes in four of his eight starts with the Falcons last season.
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Dolphins vs Raiders odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Dolphins +3.5 | Raiders -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (52%) | Under 40.5 (54%)
- Moneyline: Dolphins 42% | Raiders 63%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Dolphins vs Raiders weather
Allegiant Stadium, aka the Big Roomba or Death Star, is a dome in the middle of the desert, so the absurd Las Vegas heat won't be a factor for this or any Raiders home game.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Dolphins vs Raiders trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Raiders' last four games in Week 1. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Raiders.
How to watch Dolphins vs Raiders
| Location | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Dolphins vs Raiders latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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