Dolphins vs Jets Prop Bets: New York Gets Cooked by Mostert

Prop bet #1: Tim is him?

One look at the Tim Boyle odds posted — and his pro stats — will tell you he is not a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. But the New York Jets needed to do something with their offense lagging at the bottom of the league. 

Boyle was even a below-average QB in college and struggled when forced to start three games with Detroit in 2021. Although Boyle had just 15 pass attempts in his pro debut with Detroit in 2021, he followed up on that with 34 and 37 pass attempts in his next two starts.

Boyle entered last week's game late in the third quarter with the Jets trailing 29-6. While he threw for just 33 yards, he also had 14 pass attempts in less than 18 minutes of game time. 

Boyle is at least familiar with Nathaniel Hackett's offense, and that along with what will likely be another negative game script in this contest should lead to a decent amount of throws. Although his shaky accuracy might lead to low completions and volatility in terms of passing yards, he should eclipse his pass attempts total here.

Tim Boyle prop: Over 30.5 pass attempts (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Saving the arm

Now let's jump into the Tua Tagovailoa odds.

While I'm expecting plenty of passes for Boyle, I'm expecting the Miami signal caller to be less busy than usual. Tua has been less productive as a passer away from Miami, throwing for just 193 yards against the Chiefs in Germany three weeks ago and having 216 passing yards in his last true road game against the Eagles.

He's also facing a stingy Jets pass defense that ranks ninth in dropback EPA and fifth in success rate while allowing just 178.7 passing yards per game. The Jets allowed 275 yards through the air to Josh Allen last week but limited him to 236 yards in their season opener and also shut down Patrick Mahomes (203 yards), Justin Herbert (136 yards), and Russell Wilson (196 yards).

In addition, if the Dolphins jump out to a big lead, Tua will likely hand it off or throw shorter passes. 

Tua Tagovailoa prop: Under 249.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Mostert Motors

While the Jets do a great job of defending against the pass, they've been less impressive against the run. They're 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (137.6) while allowing 4.2 yards per pop.

That's good news for Miami's running back Raheem Mostert, who is coming off a season-high 22 carries for 86 yards against the Raiders. Mostert has rushed for at least 65 yards in six of his last nine games and is averaging 72.7 ypg over that span.

Although Mostert has been limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury, he's been banged up for much of the season and has still toughed it out and produced. With explosive rookie De'Von Achane also banged up and third-string RB Salvon Ahmed sent to the IR, I like the Raheem Mostert odds involving his rushing total to be surpassed.

Raheem Mostert prop: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)