After you’ve opened your Christmas presents on December 25, the NFL serves up a trio of games on the holiday — starting with an NFC East encounter between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders.
While neither team has anything to play for in this 1:00 p.m. ET showcase, there will be no shortage of betting options.
My early Cowboys vs Commanders predictions and NFL picks run down the opening odds, early line moves, and more on Thursday, December 25.
Cowboys vs Commanders predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Cowboys vs Commanders spread pick: Cowboys -5.5
The Washington Commanders opened as a 5.5-point home underdog on Christmas Day with some uncertainty around the throwing hand of quarterback Marcus Mariota on the short week.
He injured his right hand in Saturday’s loss to Philadelphia, requiring stitches, and is listed as day-to-day on the short week while also dealing with a quads injury.
With starter Jayden Daniels shut down, the Commanders would turn to journeyman Josh Johnson under center if Mariota can't suit up.
The Dallas Cowboys lug a three-game slide to the nation’s capital, most recently getting blasted by the L.A. Chargers at home on Sunday. The Cowboys did beat up on the Commanders in Week 7, winning a 44-22 shootout at home.
If and when Mariota is ruled out, this spread will jump to the key number of -6. And with no shortage of support for Dallas, I could see this closing -6.5 come Thursday.
The Cowboys can put up points against this terrible Washington defense, which is something the Commanders might not be able to do with a QB3 at the wheel and a banged-up offensive line in front of him.
Early Cowboys vs Commanders total pick: Under 50.5
This total opened at 49.5 and has jumped to 50.5 points, despite the Commanders’ QB questions. If Mariota is ruled out, this number will dip through 50 points and could slump to 48 or shorter.
Neither defense is great, which is why we’re seeing a total this size. But Mariota has been a serviceable backup in place of Daniels, and has been running with the first teamers most of the season. Johnson would come in cold on a short week and faces a Cowboys pass rush that can get after the quarterback.
As for the Dallas offense, a total this high is asking the Cowboys to shoulder the lion’s share of the scoring. There’s no shortage of weapons in this high-flying air attack, but just how pumped will they be to travel for a meaningless game on Xmas Day?
Outside of focus, Week 17 is the first time Dallas has played outdoors since a trip to Denver in Week 8. While the weather in Washington doesn’t look too bad, QB Dak Prescott sees significant splits in his output when heading into open-air venues, especially in December.
You could wait and see if this total hits the key stop of 51 points before buying back, but don’t wait too long. Any updates on Mariota’s availability will move this total quickly.
Cowboys vs Commanders odds
- Cowboys vs. Commanders spread: Commanders +5.5
- Cowboys vs. Commanders moneyline: Cowboys -290, Commanders +235
- Cowboys vs. Commanders Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Cowboys vs Commanders
- Cowboys vs. Commanders matchup
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Landover, MD
- Venue: Northwest Stadium
- TV: Netflix
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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