The Pittsburgh Pirates look to notch their seventh win in nine games when they face the San Francisco Giants this afternoon
Our MLB odds have the Giants favored to win despite the hosts having lost nine of their last 11 games.
My Pirates vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks explain why the Patrick Bailey trade makes the home pitching staff even more vulnerable to a rough outing.
Who will win Pirates vs Giants today: Pirates (+102)
The Pittsburgh Pirates 20-hit outburst on Saturday wasn’t a fluke. The Pirates rank fourth in xwOBA over the past two weeks with a .339 mark while sitting third in MLB in wRC+ over that span.
It also came immediately after the San Francisco Giants traded Patrick Bailey, arguably the best pitch framer in baseball. The Giants' pitching staff looked noticeably more vulnerable without him behind the plate.
That’s bad news for Tyler Mahle, who enters with a 4.50 BB/9 ratio and now loses an elite catcher who consistently stole strikes for his pitchers.
The Pirates have also dramatically improved their plate discipline lately, carrying just a 5% strikeout rate over the past two weeks — a major boost against a pitcher prone to issuing walks.
COVERS INTEL: Eric Haase, San Francisco’s projected catcher for Sunday, owns a 63% called strike rate on pitches 1-2 inches inside the zone — 25% lower than the league average.
Pirates vs Giants Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
Saturday’s matchup produced 16 runs, and another high-scoring game is very much in play Sunday afternoon.
The Pirates are slugging .416 over the past two weeks while posting a 37% hard-hit rate that ranks second in baseball during that stretch.
Bubba Chandler has also been far less effective on the road, allowing opponents to slug .448 with four home runs surrendered in just 18 2/3 innings away from Pittsburgh.
Mahle’s control issues should continue giving the Pirates free baserunners, and the weather conditions only help the Over case further, with winds expected to blow out to left field at more than 10 mph.
- ML/RL bets: 4-7, -3.67 units
- Over/Under bets: 8-3, 4.91 units
Pirates vs Giants odds
- Moneyline: Pirates +104 | Giants -108
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 (+178) | Giants +1.5 (-186)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Pirates vs Giants trend
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 away games (+5.20 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Giants.
How to watch Pirates vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Sunday, May 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP, NBCSBA |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Bubba Chandler (1-4, 4.76 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Tyler Mahle (1-4, 5.00 ERA) |
Pirates vs Giants latest injuries
Pirates vs Giants weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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