Will Mike Vrabel Be Fired? Polymarket Sets 2026 Exit Odds for Patriots HC

Trevor Knapp - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Trevor Knapp • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: May 10, 2026 , 01:23 PM ET • 4 min read

Hot seat or here for the long-term? Mike Vrabel’s future with the New England Patriots is already drawing action on Polymarket.

New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel speaks to reporters in the media during the 2026 NFL Annual League Meeting.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel speaks to reporters in the media during the 2026 NFL Annual League Meeting.

The NFL continues to live up to its billing as the greatest reality show in sports, with the latest offseason drama putting New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel under the spotlight following a reported affair involving former Athletic reporter Diana Russini.

Can the reigning Coach of the Year survive the tabloids? Here are the latest prediction markets asking "will Mike Vrabel be fired?" in Foxborough amid the ongoing barrage of drama.

Will Mike Vrabel be fired this year?

Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? Polymarket
Yes 23%
No 85%

How We Got Here

From 2020 to 2024, rumors of a growing relationship between Diana Russini and Mike Vrabel resurfaced through alleged sightings and industry gossip, headlined by a meeting at the Ambiente Sedona hotel this past March. 

By April, Russini had resigned from her position with The Athletic, while Vrabel addressed “difficult conversations” and received public backing from the Patriots, including star quarterback Drake Maye supporting the Pats' HC and calling him "a great human being".

This Too Shall Pass... Or Not?

Although most of these scandalous stories lose their juiciness with time, new evidence of Vrabel's past with Russini continues to emerge, with TMZ last posting evidence of a reportedly pregnant Russini and Vrabel renting a boat back in June of 2021.

Cost of Cutting Ties

While Mike Vrabel boasts Coach of the Year honors in both 2021 and 2025 and is fresh off leading the New England Patriots to a Super Bowl appearance in his first season with the team, distractions are piling up in Foxborough — and this isn’t Vrabel’s first time being in the headlines for the wrong reasons.

The New England Patriots head coach odds offer few viable replacements for Vrabel, so owner Robert Kraft has a huge decision on his hands before training camp gets underway.

New England's Early-Season Outlook

Despite coming off a 14-3 season and clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Patriots’ regular-season win total sits at 9.5 for 2026-27, including Super Bowl odds of +1500 and divisional odds of +130 that have them trailing the Buffalo Bills (-130).

If Vrabel continues to dominate headlines and distract from the team's upcoming campaign, New England’s postseason outlook will further deteriorate by Week 1.

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Trevor Knapp - Covers
Betting Analyst

Trevor joined the Covers content team as a publishing editor in early 2022. Growing up in Vancouver, he studied Broadcast and Online Journalism at the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT), and interned with TSN and Sportsnet Radio while also writing for the Daily Hive.

An avid bettor of the MLB, NFL, and CFL, Trevor advises his fellow sports bettors to leave their hearts at the door and not hesitate to fade their favorite team. It's a strategy he follows regularly as an apathetic Indianapolis Colts and Toronto Blue Jays fan.

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