"Knowing ball" is only half the battle when it comes to trading NFL odds.
The best opinions are wasted if you don’t back them up with the best spreads and totals.
Each week of the NFL season, I scour the opening lines for the NFL picks to make right now and some markets that could hold value as they mature later in the week.
Here are my best NFL Week 6 predictions to make now and a couple to put a pin in.
NFL predictions: Week 6 trade now, trade later picks
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| Pick | Trade now or trade later? |
|---|---|
| Chiefs -7.5 | Trade NOW |
| Jets +7 | Trade later |
| Cowboys/Packers Over 50.5 | Trade NOW |
| Steelers/Buccaneers Under 40.5 | Trade later |
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Chargers at Chiefs -7.5: Trade Now
Trend bettors have this AFC West war saved in their calendars under "Andy Reid Bye Week," with the Kansas City Chiefs head coach boasting a healthy career record when given extra time to prep.
While those results haven’t been as sturdy in recent years, a rested K.C. squad looks to kick the Los Angeles Chargers while they're down. The opener is Chiefs -7.5, and I could see this jumping to -8 or higher quickly.
Kansas City’s offense is rolling in Episode 2 of the Eric Bieniemy Experience, with the team rating in the Top 10 of all the sexy advanced metrics and placing fourth in points per play.
The Chiefs face a Bolts team that can’t seem to string together two positive plays before either turning the ball over or getting flagged for a penalty. The Chargers have the ninth-lowest third-down success rate and picked up just 14 first downs in a loss to Denver Sunday.
This will be L.A.’s third road game in the past four weeks and Week 7's much-needed bye could serve as look-ahead bait for the Bolts.
Jets +7 at Patriots: Trade Later
The New England Patriots are starting to look like AFC champs after back-to-back wins, most recently a 28-point squash of Las Vegas at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Oddsmakers seem convinced the Pats have turned over a new leaf, opening New England as 7-point home chalk versus the New York Jets. And it appears the public is sold too, quickly pushing this spread to -7.5. That line will likely run higher later in the week (-8 is an underrated key number).
New York hung on for an ugly win over Cleveland in Week 5, but what else would you expect with the teams involved? The Jets overcame injuries on offense and have a shot at returning some of those talents, like RB Breece Hall, for this AFC East rivalry match.
New England could get caught in a look-ahead spot vs. Gang Green, with a Thursday trip to Chicago coming in Week 7. If the Patriots get up, they could ease off the gas to protect players for the short week ahead.
If you aren’t sold on New England, wait and see how many points you can grab with the Jets (and keep an ear to the ground on those N.Y. injury updates).
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Cowboys at Packers Over 50.5: Trade Now
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love let it rip vs. Chicago in Week 5, hitting multiple home-run plays to finish with almost 370 yards passing.
Love has thrown for 300+ yards in three of five games so far and faces a dreadful Dallas Cowboys defense on Sunday Night Football.
Love has enjoyed past meetings with the Cowboys, amassing 337 yards and three touchdowns last season and connecting for three TDs and 272 yards in Green Bay’s infamous ass-waxing of Dallas in the 2023 Wild Card Round.
The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Tampa Bay last Thursday. Three turnovers sucked all the juice out of a big night for QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 316 yards in Week 5.
Dallas’ defense is getting blown away by explosive downfield plays, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and opponent success rate per pass. The Cowboys are also giving up the fifth most points per play.
It’s the Over or nothing with this total. I’m snatching it now at 50.5, just shy of the key O/U stop of 51.
Steelers at Buccaneers Under 40.5: Trade Later
The look-ahead line for this non-conference contest was 45.5 in the summer, with Baker Mayfield (now out with a thumb injury) expected under center.
It was down to 39.5 O/U before the events of Week 5, which saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stack 400+ yards on Thursday and the Pittsburgh Steelers hang 34 points on Indianapolis this Sunday.
That has the official Week 6 opener at 40.5 points, just shy of the key number of 41 O/U. If you’re interested in buying back those offensive upticks, wait and see if this total gets taller.
Jalon Daniels exploited the Dallas defense's rusty lawn chairs on a short week, getting a bump from three takeaways. He takes on the Steelers’ chaos-causing stop unit, which is among the leaders in takeaways but also third-down defense and first downs against.
As for the Bucs, Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy schemes attack the aging legs of Aaron Rodgers, who’s been lukewarm when foes bring extra pass rushers in his two years in Pittsburgh. His Week 5 stat line is skewed with 80 of his 235 yards coming on one big catch-and-run. Take that dinger out of the equation, and Rodgers averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt Sunday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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