Washington @ Miami Picks & Props

The Commanders are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games with four of those defeats coming by more than 20 points. Their roster has been ravaged by injuries — none more impactful than the absence of superstar QB Jayden Daniels. With backup Marcus Mariota throwing to a decimated WR corps, they won't be able to take advantage of a weak Miami secondary. The Dolphins are coming off a 30-13 win against the Bills and have been competitive in recent weeks after a brutal start to the year. They should be able to move the ball against a Commanders D that's been getting torched and will be without its top-two corners, best pass rusher, and top interior lineman. 

The Commanders have been a disaster, losing four straight by 20+ points and giving up 179 total points during their five-game skid. Miami could be in a slight letdown spot after their emotional win over Buffalo, but the Dolphins should still be able to move the ball with ease here. Malik Washington has scored in two of his last three games and continues to get designed touches, including four carries over his last two outings. He was also the only WR/TE to see a red-zone target last week, which keeps him firmly in play for another touchdown. With Ollie Gordon limited early in the week due to an ankle issue, Washington could see more red-zone work. I’m taking this at +180.

The Dolphins own an identical 3-7 record as Washington but ride high into Santiago Bernabéu off the franchise’s biggest win in years. Miami stunned the rival Bills 30-13 at home last Sunday, setting up a looming letdown spot on international turf. The Fins are known to flop, putting up a 2-7 SU/ATS record off a win over the past two seasons, and Fins coach Mike McDaniel is generating some bad juju with his drive-by trolling of Buffalo fans last Sunday. "Schadenfreude" is a German term, but karma knows no borders. McDaniel might not have a flight home from Spain if he doesn’t win, given a Week 12 bye is the ideal time to drop the ax on the underperforming coach. This is a classic buy low, sell high spot with two comparable teams playing in a strange setting. And with Washington head coach Dan Quinn taking over play calling for the defense, we could see a “Dead Cat” bounce from the Commanders’ sluggish stop unit.

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 76.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-highest rate in the league.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 76.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-highest rate in the league.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, conceding 7.87 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.

With a 58.5% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football has been the Miami Dolphins.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 62.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 51.7 plays per game.. The leading projections forecast Tua Tagovailoa to throw 31.1 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the porous Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 4th-worst in the league.. This year, the weak Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a whopping 89.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the biggest rate in football.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The model projects Deebo Samuel Sr. to garner 8.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his offense's passing game this year (27.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.6%).. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 63.6% to 79.2%.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Greg Dulcich's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 47.9% to 71.4%.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.6%) versus tight ends this year (82.6%).. This year, the porous Commanders defense has given up the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 9.61 yards.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. This week, De'Von Achane is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 7.7 targets.. De'Von Achane has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this season (22.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (15.3%).. When it comes to air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among running backs this year, averaging a staggering 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. The Washington Commanders defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (39.0) vs. RBs this year.

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Commanders to call the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The 7th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a lowly 53.1 per game on average).. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.6 per game) this year.. Zach Ertz's 33.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year conveys an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 40.0 figure.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 62.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 51.7 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Commanders defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year with their run defense.