Marcus Mariota has thrown 42.7% of his pass attempts downfield and the Dolphins have allowed the third highest passer rating against downfield passes this season.
With Tyreek Hill out with a season-ending injury, Jaylen Waddle has stepped into the No. 1 WR role with Miami. The speedster has racked up more than 80 receiving yards in five of his last six contests, and on Sunday he faces a struggling Commanders defense in Madrid. Washington allows the second-most receiving yards per game (177.9) to opposing wide receivers and ranks last in defensive dropback EPA. That brutal secondary will be even worse with starting corners Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos recently sent to the IR.
The Commanders are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games with four of those defeats coming by more than 20 points. Their roster has been ravaged by injuries — none more impactful than the absence of superstar QB Jayden Daniels. With backup Marcus Mariota throwing to a decimated WR corps, they won't be able to take advantage of a weak Miami secondary. The Dolphins are coming off a 30-13 win against the Bills and have been competitive in recent weeks after a brutal start to the year. They should be able to move the ball against a Commanders D that's been getting torched and will be without its top-two corners, best pass rusher, and top interior lineman.
The Commanders have been a disaster, losing four straight by 20+ points and giving up 179 total points during their five-game skid. Miami could be in a slight letdown spot after their emotional win over Buffalo, but the Dolphins should still be able to move the ball with ease here. Malik Washington has scored in two of his last three games and continues to get designed touches, including four carries over his last two outings. He was also the only WR/TE to see a red-zone target last week, which keeps him firmly in play for another touchdown. With Ollie Gordon limited early in the week due to an ankle issue, Washington could see more red-zone work. I’m taking this at +180.
The Dolphins own an identical 3-7 record as Washington but ride high into Santiago Bernabéu off the franchise’s biggest win in years. Miami stunned the rival Bills 30-13 at home last Sunday, setting up a looming letdown spot on international turf. The Fins are known to flop, putting up a 2-7 SU/ATS record off a win over the past two seasons, and Fins coach Mike McDaniel is generating some bad juju with his drive-by trolling of Buffalo fans last Sunday. "Schadenfreude" is a German term, but karma knows no borders. McDaniel might not have a flight home from Spain if he doesn’t win, given a Week 12 bye is the ideal time to drop the ax on the underperforming coach. This is a classic buy low, sell high spot with two comparable teams playing in a strange setting. And with Washington head coach Dan Quinn taking over play calling for the defense, we could see a “Dead Cat” bounce from the Commanders’ sluggish stop unit.
This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. With an extraordinary 17.1% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane stands among the pass-game running backs with the most usage near the goal line in football.. When it comes to air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among running backs this year, averaging a staggering 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. De'Von Achane's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 22.4.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. This year, Tua Tagovailoa has not scored any TDs on the ground.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the league against the Commanders defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the porous Commanders defense has surrendered a whopping 2.20 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-biggest rate in the NFL.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 38.2.. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 63.6% to 79.2%.. With an outstanding rate of 0.40 per game through the air (85th percentile), Deebo Samuel Sr. has been among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to wide receivers this year.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 76.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-highest rate in the league.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 76.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-highest rate in the league.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, conceding 7.87 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. This year, the poor Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 270.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 5th-worst in the NFL.. The Commanders pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, allowing 9.55 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in football.. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks grade out as the worst CB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
With a 58.5% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football has been the Miami Dolphins.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 62.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 51.7 plays per game.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the porous Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 4th-worst in the league.. This year, the weak Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a whopping 89.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the biggest rate in football.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The model projects Deebo Samuel Sr. to garner 8.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his offense's passing game this year (27.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.6%).. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 63.6% to 79.2%.
Washington Trends
Miami Trends