My early Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction and NFL picks start with a simple question: How could anyone trust the Miami Dolphins?
The Kansas City Chiefs head to South Beach looking reinvigorated while the Dolphins look like a team leaning a little too hard into the whole tanking thing.
These clubs are traveling in wildly different directions. As a result, the visiting Chiefs are correctly favored by 10.5 points, and the total sits at 45.5 ahead of this 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 27 on CBS.
Chiefs vs Dolphins predictions
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Early Chiefs vs Dolphins spread pick: Chiefs -10.5
It shouldn’t be this easy. Laying 10.5 points on the road usually needs some convincing, but finding a logical reason to back the Miami Dolphins requires a work of fiction. Expectations were already in the toilet, and the Dolphins somehow found the basement underneath it.
Meanwhile, a rejuvenated Kansas City Chiefs team has been shot out of a cannon to open the season. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t missed a beat in his return from injury, coming off a 382-yard passing performance, while Kenneth Walker III looks like the missing piece to get them back into Super Bowl contention after piling up an insane 369 total yards through two games.
These guys are fresh, hungry again, and still establishing what this offense can become. I don’t expect the foot to come off the gas as they look to remain consistent early in the season. This spread is high, but it's not high enough.
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Early Chiefs vs Dolphins total pick: Under 45.5
The total is tougher to pin down, mainly because Kansas City could do most of the scoring itself. Still, Under 45.5 gets my early lean thanks to a Dolphins offense that’s managed just 13 points in each of its first two games. It's even worse than it sounds for the Dolphins as one of their two total touchdowns came when they were already buried 35-6 against San Francisco.
Kansas City went 13-4 to the Under last season, and this matchup should bring out a defense that looks much more like the unit that held Denver to 10 points in Week 1. The Chiefs can win comfortably without Miami contributing enough to send this Over.
Chiefs vs Dolphins odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Chiefs vs Dolphins spread: Dolphins +10.5
- Chiefs vs Dolphins moneyline: Chiefs 85%, Dolphins 15%
- Chiefs vs Dolphins Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Chiefs vs Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Miami, FL
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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