It's the first prime-time NFL game for Caleb Williams as his Chicago Bears face off with the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.
It wasn't necessarily the greatest debut for Williams last week, but he did get the win, making him the first No. 1 overall draft pick at quarterback to win his debut since David Carr did it with the Texans in 2002.
I look at the Caleb Williams odds and NFL player props and search for improvement for Williams in Week 2 as a part of my NFL picks for September 15.
Caleb Williams SNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards
(-115 at bet365) - SGP Pick
Caleb Williams 200+ passing yards
DJ Moore Over 65.5 receiving yards
Stefon Diggs anytime TD
(+475 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Caleb Williams SNF prop pick
My best bet
Pick (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
It was not the prettiest debut for Caleb Williams last week, as he was 14 of 29 passing for only 93 yards. He also only had 15 yards rushing and was sacked twice. Still, the Chicago Bears were able to beat the Tennessee Titans, 24-17.
However, I expect to see a better performance from him in Week 2 as the Houston Texans’ defense may be ripe for the picking. Despite holding Anthony Richardson to 9-for-19 passing last week, they still allowed 212 yards and two long touchdowns. Williams can excel with his deep ball, and he has the targets that can get open down the field.
While only allowing nine completions last week, the Texans still allowed three passes of 54 yards or more. Richardson also missed a few open deep passes to rookie Adonai Mitchell with inaccurate throws. If Williams has an open man deep, he likely won’t miss.
Williams had 10 pass completions in the preseason and three of those went for at least 26 yards. Two went for at least 42 yards.
He will likely be without at least one of his top wideouts, if not two, in Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen. However, even if both these threats are out, it is worth noting that two of the three big plays from Williams in the preseason went to D’Andre Swift and Cole Kmet.
He will also have big-play threats in DJ Moore and Khalil Herbert. Moore had 25 catches of at least 25 yards last year and two of at least 40 yards, and that was with Justin Fields at quarterback.
The Texans are favored by almost a full touchdown in this game, and Williams will need to put up a better performance to keep this game close. With a trailing game script and an opportunity to put up some big plays, I expect the rookie to find at least one play of 36 or more yards in the air.
Caleb Williams SNF same-game parlay
Caleb Williams 200+ passing yards
DJ Moore Over 65.5 receiving yards
Stefon Diggs anytime TD
My best bet is not available as a same-game parlay leg, but there's a nice alternative in Williams to reach the 200-yard plateau.
Williams has a low passing yardage total due to his struggles last week and the fact that the Texans only allowed nine completions last week. But if the rookie is going to have a pass of at least 37 yards combined with the likely game script, it would be very surprising if he did not hit the 200-yard mark.
For Caleb to get the big plays, it is likely going to go through Moore, who had eight games with at least 64 yards receiving. Even though he only had 36 yards last week, he still had five catches and eight targets. The volume here should push him past his number.
Finally, let’s look to a touchdown scorer for the Texans. While Nico Collins was Stroud’s favorite target last week between the 20’s, it was clear that Stefon Diggs was the go-to guy in the red zone. He had two touchdowns last week of nine and two yards, respectively.
I like his chances to score again on Sunday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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