The Minnesota Vikings bring their undefeated record to the Big Easy to face the New Orleans Saints in Week 5.
New Orleans has a short week to prepare for Brian Flores’ dangerous defense after losing to Atlanta on Monday, opening as a short home underdog for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
My early Vikings vs. Saints predictions kick the tires on Minnesota’s 4-0 start and whether there are any hidden edges for my early leans and NFL picks for Oct. 11.
Vikings vs Saints predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Vikings vs Saints moneyline pick: Vikings
I’ll lean toward the Minnesota Vikings to win outright rather than cover the spread, mainly because you need to score points to beat the oddsmakers’ expectations — and that’s something Minnesota hasn’t done much of.
The Vikings offense is a work in progress with new QB Kyler Murray under center. It went 0-for-3 in the red zone in an uncomfortable win over Miami in Week 4, dropping to 31st in offensive DVOA.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson took a knee at the goal line in the final seconds, so those results aren’t as dismal as they appear.
The New Orleans Saints face a short week after getting bullied by Atlanta at home on MNF. New Orleans has given up a butt-ton of points to start the season, sitting last in opponent points per play and 30th in EPA per play allowed.
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Early Vikings vs Saints total pick: Over 41.5
Minnesota’s blitz-centric schemes are keeping rival QBs up at night. The Vikings rank No. 1 in pressure rate and sacks, No. 2 in hurry rate, and No. 4 in QB hits.
Saints second-year passer Tyler Shough has done well vs. the blitz, according to his PFF rankings. He’s getting rid of the ball quickly, with the second-lowest time in pocket and the second-lowest pressure rate against.
With injuries thinning out the rushing game and negative game scripts, NOLA has had to pass on 66% of snaps, the fourth most in the NFL. That’s led to at least 24 points in the first four games, coming against some sound stop units.
The Vikings will likely get WR1 Justin Jefferson back for Week 5 after he sat out with an ankle injury Sunday. He's the best player on the field and faces a Saints secondary among the worst in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, and it's sitting 28th in EPA allowed per dropback.
I think both sides will put up plenty of points in the Superdome. I’m leaning Over 41.5.
Vikings vs Saints odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Vikings vs Saints spread: Saints +1.5
- Vikings vs Saints moneyline: Vikings 55%, Saints 45%
- Vikings vs Saints Over/Under: 41.5
How to watch Vikings vs Saints
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: New Orleans, La.
- Venue: Caesars Superdome
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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