Week 6 is here and it kicks off Thursday night with a possibly high-scoring game between the Bucs and Eagles. We’re looking into every matchup to uncover some of TNF’s best player prop bets, doing the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. We’re riding one Jalen Hurts prop and taking a pair of RB plays with favorable matchups.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Thursday night’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles.
Buccaneers vs Eagles prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Buccaneers vs Eagles TNF props
Focusing on Fournette
Rookie Chuba Hubbard rushed for over 100 yards versus the Eagles last week, meaning Philadelphia has now allowed three straight 95-yard rushers and could see plenty of Leonard Fournette on Thursday.
Pro Football Focus has the Buccaneers with the seventh-best OL vs. DL rushing matchup in Week 6, and Fournette ran to a 5.6 yards per rush average versus a similar Miami defense (21st-ranked run defense by DVOA to Philly's 23rd-ranked DVOA rush defense) last week. Brady also threw the ball 41 times and is coming off short rest. The Bucs would be smart to lean on Fournette against the Eagles.
Fournette played 42 snaps last week (64 percent) and had 12 of the team’s 21 RB carries in a blowout win. He had 20 rushes for 90 yards in Week 4 and his involvement in the passing game has been important to the Tampa offense, as Fournette is averaging nearly four catches and 33 yards in the air this year. We have no problem hitting either his Over 62.5 rushing yards or Over 26.5 receiving yards but feel the rushing play has a better edge with Giovani Bernard getting more action in the passing game.
PICK: Leonard Fournette Over 62.5 rushing yards (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Make it Hurts So Good
Only the Seahawks and Cowboys are giving up more passing yards than the Buccaneers. The Bucs will be without CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis, plus free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. This secondary has been picked apart by opposing QBs as Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Dak Prescott threw for at least 300 yards, while Mac Jones and Jacoby Brissett both threw for 275 yards in the last two weeks versus the Bucs.
Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts’ passing total has been affected by this soft passing defense as his total sits at 285.5 yards after opening at 276.5. The highest his total had been before Week 6 was 249.5 yards. He hasn’t topped 275 yards in three of five games and coming on a short week, we’re avoiding the passing total on the Philly QB. Instead, we’re looking at another QB prop.
Hurts is going from the best defense against QB completions (Carolina) to the worst (Tampa Bay). Todd Bowles’ defense is averaging 32.8 completions per game, which is the same number Hurts completed versus the Chiefs in Week 4. Hurts hasn’t been afraid to dump off short passes either, which can only increase those completion numbers.
Tampa Bay is also stingy versus running QBs, allowing just 2.6 QB rushing yards per game. The pass rush hasn’t generated a ton of pressure (bottom-12 in QB pressure percent) which could hopefully keep Hurts in the pocket and throwing in what should be a high-scoring game.
You can’t run versus the Bucs. Hurts doesn’t have many options other than to pass.
PICK: Jalen Hurts Over 24.5 completions (+100 at bet365)
Running against the Buccaneers is not advised. Tampa is holding opposing teams to just 45.8 yards per game on the ground. If Philadelphia wants to get Miles Sanders involved, it will have to be in the passing game, which teams have done successfully against the Tampa defense.
The Buccaneers are giving up 60 receiving yards and 8.4 catches to opposing RBs this year, which are both bottom-three numbers. Sanders was second on the team last week with five receptions and although he was held to just six yards against a tough Carolina defense, Sanders is a staple in the Philadelphia passing game and has topped 24 yards receiving in three of his five games.
Rookie running back Kenneth Gainwell has been cutting into Sanders’ targets but it was the starter who saw more targets last week, on 75 percent of the snaps. Of the 50 snaps Sanders played, 33 were in the passing game compared to 12 from Gainwell.
Sanders’ receiving total stands at 24.5 yards, which is one yard fewer than Gainwell’s. RB Myles Gaskin went for 10/74/2 on 10 targets last week versus the Bucs while Brandon Bolden (6/51/0) and Cordarrelle Patterson (5/58/1) also racked up big numbers through the air.
PICK: Miles Sanders Over 24.5 receiving yards (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Season to date: 24-29 -4.8 units (Risking 1 unit per play)