The 2026 NFL season is here, kicking off with Thursday Wednesday Night Football action between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, in a much-anticipated rematch of Super Bowl LX.
Our NFL analysts have been hard at work poring over the latest odds to bring you our Patriots vs. Seahawks best bets for this season-opening bout, and I've collected a selection of our NFL picks at Kalshi ahead of tonight's kickoff below.
The game is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET at Lumen Field in Seattle, Wash., broadcast live on NBC on Wednesday, Sept. 9.
Patriots vs Seahawks predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Seahawks moneyline |
56% |
| Seahawks -3.5 |
46% |
 / Under 44.5 |
52% |
| Hunter Henry 3+ receptions |
54% |
| AJ Brown anytime TD |
35% |
| AJ Barner anytime TD |
24% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Patriots vs Seahawks?
The Seattle Seahawks are massive favorites over the New England Patriots tonight, and Trevor Knapp is backing the home team with his NFL Week 1 moneyline picks.
Our prediction: Seahawks to win — Yes (56%)
"Seattle’s defense held New England to just 13 points in last year’s Super Bowl, and Cover 6 is the name of the game when it comes to disrupting Drake Maye’s rhythm, as seen in his god-awful postseason stats.
It may take a while for new Seahawks OC Brian Fleury to hit a groove, but he won’t have to call a perfect game to take down New England."
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Patriots vs Seahawks spread prediction
Our prediction: Seahawks -3.5 — Yes (46%)
Analyst Chris Vasile is going a step further and backing the Seahawks to come out on top in his NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread.
"I’m not betting on New England catching lightning in a bottle twice. The Patriots’ Super Bowl run was real, but TreVeyon Henderson being unavailable removes perhaps their most dangerous explosive weapon, and Seattle already showed how uncomfortable Mike Macdonald’s pressure packages can make Maye."
Patriots vs Seahawks total prediction
Our prediction: Over 44.5 — No (52%)
Jason Logan breaks down the whole game with his Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions, and his favorite angle is the Under 44.5 points on the game total.
Cheering for a rock fight to start the NFL season.
— Jason Logan (@CoversJLo) September 9, 2026
This is the way. https://t.co/YrU60xdZ7e pic.twitter.com/bJwhuwn3EO
"New England’s defense deals with a different Seattle ground game in Week 1. The Seahawks are thin in the backfield, due to injuries and departures, which hurts the success of selling play action.
Sam Darnold is among the best QBs in play action, and if new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury can’t establish the run, this attack can get predictable."
More Patriots vs Seahawks picks from Covers
Patriots vs Seahawks player props
Receiving prop: Hunter Henry 3+ receptions — Yes ( 54%)
Jason Logan is also bullish on tight end Hunter Henry getting involved in the Patriots offense tonight as one of his favorite NFL player props, even if the score is suppressed in the end.
"Henry was second in targets last season and is one of the best zone-busting TEs in the NFL, rated No. 4 versus zone at PFF in 2025.
He’ll face predominantly zone coverage from the Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 1 (Seattle was No. 2 in zone usage in 2025).
Seattle was busy with rival TEs last year, allowing the fifth most receptions to the position – a product of the Seahawks' pass rush forcing pressured QBs to check down to tight ends."
For some Darnold and Rhamondre Stevenson angles, check out Logan's full Patriots vs. Seahawks player props.
Patriots anytime touchdown prop: AJ Brown — Yes (35%)
After four seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles, wide receive AJ Brown makes his Patriots debut, and Robert Criscola is earmarking him — along with two others — as an ideal target to find paydirt in his Patriots vs. Seahawks touchdown props.
"The Patriots will be eager to let their new No. 1 target establish himself in the offense in Week 1.
Brown's touchdown numbers dipped over the last two seasons in Philly, partially due to injuries. Also at play was the Eagles running the football at the highest clip in the NFL in 2024. Philly dipped to sixth in rush rate last year, but still chose to run it over 58% of time in the red zone in 2025 (third).
Henry was New England's tearaway leader in red-zone targets last year, but that was more out of necessity for Maye, who dealt with a sub-optimal group of wide-outs last season, than anything else."
Seahawks anytime touchdown prop: AJ Barner — Yes (24%)
Jason Logan is adding a touchdown from Seahawks tight end AJ Barner to his list of Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions, as he expects the 24-year-old to kick off a potential breakout campaign in style.
"New OC Brian Fleury is a former TE coach and will utilize a lot of 12 personnel, especially early on as he gets his feet wet as a play caller.
On top of being a capable pass catcher, the Seahawks also utilize Barner as a runner in goal line situations — AKA “The Barnyard” — in which he takes a direct snap in “tush push” fashion."
Patriots vs Seahawks live markets explained
Kalshi's event contracts can be bought and sold as the Patriots vs. Seahawks game unfolds, meaning traders aren't locked into their pregame positions.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Patriots vs Seahawks prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Patriots beat the Seahawks?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Patriots vs. Seahawks position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Patriots vs Seahawks at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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