The Cleveland Browns and Washington Commanders meet for a Week 17 matchup on Sunday at FedEx Field
Cleveland's 17-10 loss against the New Orleans Saints at home last Saturday eliminated it from playoff contention. Meanwhile, Washington suffered an embarrassing 37-20 loss in San Francisco, allowing its most points of the season, while dropping its second straight game.
Can the home side bounce back and keep its playoff hopes alive, or will the visitors head to the nation’s capital and play the role of spoiler? We’ll discuss further in our NFL betting picks and predictions for the Browns vs. Commanders on Sunday, January 1.
Browns vs Commanders best odds
Browns vs Commanders picks and predictions
We’ll start with the home side, as Washington made a lot of headlines this past week. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke was benched after a couple of miscues in San Francisco last weekend, and QB Carson Wentz entered the game and played very well. As such, head coach Ron Rivera named Wentz as the starter for Sunday.
"Riverboat Ron" pins the team’s flickering playoff hopes on Wentz, who has not started since breaking his right ring finger back on October 13. He started the first six games of the season and will be hungry to seize this second chance — especially with such high stakes.
The Browns were eliminated from the postseason picture, and there was a rumor RB Nick Chubb might rest in the final two games. He put those rumors to bed Thursday, confirming he’ll play Sunday, despite the fact there is nothing left to play for but pride.
Chubb and Cleveland will face a turgid Commanders' defense that has allowed just 313.0 total yards per game to rank No. 4 in the NFL. QB Deshaun Watson might also have a difficult time Sunday, as Washington is No. 7 in the league with just 198.6 passing yards per game allowed.
Toss in the fact safety Kamren Curl might be ready to return from an injury, and Washington should be able to keep the Cleveland offense from doing a whole lot.
On the flip side, the Browns' defense has really struggled, especially against the run. The Commanders have a lot left to play for, Wentz is fired up to have his job back, and he has a cadre of impressive receivers from WRs Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel.
It’s stunning the Commanders are favored by such a small amount, as being the home team is usually good for a 3-point advantage, so the books and sharps really like the Browns for some reason. Going the other way is usually foolhardy, but Washington has plenty to play for, and it will get it done on its home turf.
My best bet: Commanders -1.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
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Browns vs Commanders spread analysis
The Browns have been atrocious on the road this season, winning just twice in seven tries, while going 3-4 against the spread away from home.
Against the NFC, Cleveland has actually won two of its four tries, while going 1-1 in the previous two games on the road against the NFC South Division.
The Commanders have managed a 3-4 straight up record at home, but Washington is 3-3-1 ATS in those seven games at FedEx Field.
Against the AFC, Washington has posted a solid 3-1 SU record, while also covering in the three victories. The lone loss against the Tennessee Titans back in Week 5 was a bad beat, too, and probably should’ve been a Washington win and cover.
Washington comes in on a 3-game winless and non-cover streak, but the alarm will go off in front of the home fans, and the Commanders will win and therefore cover to keep the playoff hopes alive.
Browns vs Commanders Over/Under analysis
The Browns have been one of the more dependable teams, in terms of totals. The Over was 7-2-1 in the first 10 games, and bettors were cashing in. However, since Week 12, the Under has cashed in five consecutive outings. Still, it’s consistency, as the defense has been much, much better.
In fact, Cleveland has allowed just 74 total points across the past five games, or 14.8 points per game. The offense has been dismal during the streak, too, especially over the past three outings, posting an average of just 11.0 ppg.
As far as red-zone scoring percentage (TD only), Cleveland ranks No. 19 in the NFL with a 52.94% conversion rate on the season, dipping to just 30.0% in the past three games. Washington is right on its heels at No. 20, converting at a 52.5% rate. The Commanders have posted a 47.04% TD rate in the red zone at home this season.
Washington has scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games, and 10 of the past 13 games. With it's struggling offense, and Cleveland’s suddenly interested defense, it’s hard not to fall in love with the Under here. You can still catch it at Under 41 (-110 at Caesars), and that makes for a nice little parlay with the Commanders laying the points.
Browns vs Commanders betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 for the Browns in the past five games overall, while the Under is 9-3-1 in the previous 13 games overall for the Commanders. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Commanders.
Browns vs Commanders game info
| Location: | FedExField, Landover, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Commanders -2.5, 39.5 |
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