The Denver Broncos’ first game in the Jerry Rosburg era will take place on the first day of the New Year when they battle the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Much-maligned head coach Nathaniel Hackett was given the axe following the Broncos’ Week 16 thrashing at the hands of the Rams. Meanwhile, K.C. has already secured its seventh straight AFC West title, but is still in the running for the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Will Kansas City take another step toward the Super Bowl, or will Denver serve as a speed bump? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Broncos vs. Chiefs on Sunday, January 1, 2023.
Broncos vs Chiefs best odds
Broncos vs Chiefs picks and predictions
The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine overall — including a 34-28 victory over the Broncos in Denver on Dec. 11 — and tight end Travis Kelce has been instrumental in just about all of those contests. He should have another excellent effort on Sunday.
Kelce has reached at least 73 receiving yards in six of his last nine efforts, and nine times overall in 2022. That includes his back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances ahead of this tilt against the Texans and Seahawks, respectively. He just missed this plateau in his first meeting with the Broncos this season, settling for “only” 71 receiving yards.
That Denver result came despite him catching only four of nine targets from Patrick Mahomes — an unusual occurrence. Kelce has hauled in 97 of the 135 targets Mahomes has sent his way this year, good for a 71.9% success rate. The stalwart tight end is the clear leader in targets among his fellow position players and is first in receiving yards (1,257) as well as yards after catch (576).
Kelce has had his way with the Broncos many times over his nine-year career, averaging 77.9 receiving yards per game in 16 prior meetings. Considering Denver’s defense is fourth-worst in the NFL in both receptions allowed (5.7 per game) and receiving yards allowed (62.4 per game) to tight ends this year, it would not be shocking for Kelce to reach a triple-digit receiving total once more.
Other Kelce props to consider are his anytime touchdown (-120) and the Over on his longest reception (22.5 yards). Kelce hasn’t crossed the plane in four straight, so he could be due, but Denver’s defense is typically tough in the red zone. His longest reception Over holds some appeal, as he’s recorded a 23-yarder or better in eight of his last 10 contests.
However, I prefer to let that potential long reception contribute toward the Over on what is a fairly priced receiving yard total.
My best bet: Travis Kelce Over 72.5 receiving yards (-115)
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Broncos vs Chiefs spread analysis
It’s difficult to imagine Denver pulling off an upset as a 12-point underdog, but the trends suggest that this game will be closer than many might think.
The Broncos are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games played in January and have covered in 16 of their last 21 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous affair. This team may have looked hopeless after getting decimated by the hapless Rams last Sunday, but the firing of Nathaniel Hackett could give this sleepwalking squad a shot in the arm.
Meanwhile, the negative trends are piling up for Andy Reid’s men despite their success on the scoreboard. The Chiefs have failed to cover in four of their last five games following an ATS win, and have dropped each of their last five divisional games spread-wise. Kansas City is also 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with losing records, and 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games.
The Chiefs won’t be short on motivation with the No. 1 seed in the AFC to play for, but the Denver defense has been a tough nut to crack for many a team this year, sitting seventh in points allowed per game (20.3) even after last week’s 51-point debacle.
Broncos vs Chiefs Over/Under analysis
The Broncos have been an Under bettor’s best friend this season, going below the total in 11 of 15 tilts. The line has been creeping up steadily from 43.5 to as high as 45 throughout the week, but the Under looks like the way to go.
Denver has authored a league-low 15.5 points per game on offense this year. Russell Wilson is on pace to post career lows in completion percentage (60.1%), yards per attempt (7.2), passing touchdowns (12), and passer rating (82.6). He’s also tossed four interceptions and has been sacked 12 times in his last two games alone.
Latavius Murray has emerged as a decent option out of the backfield at age 32 for the Broncos — rushing for 130 yards just two weeks ago — but an underrated Chiefs’ run defense could bottle him up. This unit ranks eighth in the NFL with 107.1 rushing yards allowed per game.
There are trends aplenty to support an Under play here. The Broncos have gone below the total in five of their last six road games, and 19 of their last 26 overall. The Under has also cashed in five consecutive games at Arrowhead Stadium, and is 35-15-1 in the Chiefs’ last 51 home games against teams with losing road records.
Broncos vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Chiefs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs.
Broncos vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Chiefs -12.5, 43.5 |
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