Week 1 features an intriguing matchup between two AFC contenders with contrasting strengths. Our Bills vs. Texans predictions tell you why Houston's defense will slow Josh Allen, while both offenses push the total Over on Sunday, Sept. 13.
Check out all our free NFL picks for Week 1.
Bills vs Texans predictions
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Early Bills vs Texans spread pick: Texans -1.5
The Houston Texans' defense has been Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen's kryptonite, even before the Texans hired head coach DeMeco Ryans.
Last season, the Texans tortured Allen, sacking him eight times and picking him off twice in their 23-19 win at home. That result dropped Allen to 1-4 vs. Houston all-time.
He has a 55.4% completion rate, 980 passing yards, and a 72.7 QB rating vs. the Texans. Allen has three interceptions vs. three touchdowns in those games, with no rushing scores.
Houston's defense might be the best unit in football, and the Bills have a below-average WR corps, which is being nice.
Buffalo signed wide receiver D.J. Moore this offseason, but he might be washed. Suspiciously, the Chicago Bears wouldn't re-sign him, considering they have an offensive head coach and a quarterback on a rookie deal.
Besides the Bills adding Moore, these rosters are pretty similar year-over-year, and most of Houston's defense is in the prime of their careers.
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Early Bills vs Texans total pick: Over 44.5
This Over pick somewhat contradicts what I said about Houston's defense, but Buffalo's defense will regress this season. The Bills fired former head coach Sean McDermott, who is a defensive-minded coach, and replaced him with their former offensive coordinator in Joe Brady.
They were 20th in defensive EPA/player in the regular season and playoffs last season, per Pro.NFL.com. Buffalo's few defensive acquisitions this offseason coupled with how it looked vs. a mediocre Denver Broncos offense in the AFC Divisional Round last season reinforces my "regression" point.
Granted, this is a make-or-break season for Texans QB C.J. Stroud, who looked awful in the playoffs last season. However, his wide receivers will be healthy for at least this week, and Houston signing RB David Montgomery this offseason should improve its rushing attack.
Bills vs Texans odds
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- Bills vs Texans spread: Bills +1.5, Texans -1.5
- Bills vs Texans moneyline: Bills 52%, Texans 53%
- Bills vs Texans Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Bills vs Texans
- Bills vs Texans matchup
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Houston, Texas
- Venue: Reliant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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