Bills vs Dolphins Week 3 Picks and Predictions: Tua Primed for Another Massive Outing

Tua Tagovailoa is officially here. The Phins field general had a massive game last week en route to a tremendous fourth-quarter comeback, and we'll be targeting him in this matchup for our NFL betting picks and predictions.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Sep 25, 2022 • 08:18 ET • 4 min read
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins NFL
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One of the most highly-anticipated matchups in Week 3 of the NFL is an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

These are two of just six teams remaining in the NFL that have yet to lose a game. Buffalo is the current Super Bowl betting favorite while the Phins are surging up the futures board after an incredible performance from Tua Tagovailoa last week.

The Bills are 5.5-point road favorites for this contest with the Over/Under sitting at 53. Here are my best free NFL betting picks and predictions for Bills vs. Dolphins on September 25. 

Bills vs Dolphins best odds

Bills vs Dolphins picks and predictions

Fans might be overvaluing Tua after his 469-yard performance last week, but oddsmakers aren't over-reacting and have the O/U for his passing yards total set at a reasonable 253.5 for Week 3. Keep in mind that Tagovailoa eclipsed that number with 270 passing yards in Week 1 against the Patriots despite attempting a modest 33 passes in a game that the Phins controlled from the start.

Even before his insane fourth quarter vs. Baltimore, the Miami QB had thrown for 280 yards and the game script in Sunday's contest should favor plenty of passing if the Bills jump out to an early lead.

Tagovailoa is starting to show the arm talent that made him such a highly-touted prospect at Alabama. He's been unleashed by Mike McDaniels and a new-look Miami offense that added six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the offseason.

Expect Tua to go Over his passing yards total against a banged-up Bills secondary that is awaiting the return of All-Pro corner Tre'Davious White from an ACL injury and won't have two other starters who suffered scary neck injuries last week.

My best betTua Tagovailoa Over 253.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

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Bills vs Dolphins betting preview

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Spread analysis Over/Under analysis Trend to know Game info Injuries Weather

Spread analysis

After the Bills dismantled the Titans on Monday night, this line opened with them as a 5.5-point favorite. That spread quickly grew to -6 but injuries for Buffalo have seen that number move back to Bills -5.5 with some books offering -5.

Buffalo entered this season as the Super Bowl favorites and has done nothing to dissuade that notion after crushing the Titans 41-7 following a 31-10 beatdown of the defending champion Rams on the road in Week 1. 

The Bills have been nothing short of dominant on both sides of the ball. MVP favorite Josh Allen has completed 75.4% of his passes for 614 yards and seven touchdowns and leads an offense that is first in the league in dropback EPA. Meanwhile, Buffalo's defense is second in the league in EPA/Play and has been very stingy against both the run and the pass. 

That said, the Bills' stop unit could see their depth tested by injuries. Safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Dane Jackson have both been ruled out after neck injuries last week while another starting safety Jordan Poyer sat out Thursday's practice with a foot injury. Defensive tackle Jordan Phillips will also miss Sunday's tilt while two other tackles Ed Oliver and Tim Settle were limited in practice. 

Miami's attack will try to take advantage of a banged-up Buffalo defense after Tua broke out with a massive performance in a comeback win against the Ravens last week. The fifth pick in the 2020 draft threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns with an incredible 189 yards and four scores coming in the fourth quarter.

That said, the reason Miami had to stage a comeback was that its defense surrendered 318 passing yards to Lamar Jackson while giving up another 155 yards on the ground. That was a big step back from Week 1 where it limited the Patriots' punchless offense to 271 yards in a 20-7 victory.  

The Phins have a couple of key players on the injury report as well with left tackle Terron Armstead and Pro Bowl corner Xavien Howard questionable. 

Over/Under analysis

With the Dolphins erupting for 42 points last week (including 28 points in the final frame), it's little surprise that the total for this clash peaked as high as 54 and now sits at 53 at most books.

The Bills have been unstoppable on offense and had 413 yards against the Rams' stout stop unit in Week 1 before steamrolling the Titans for 414 yards despite pulling Allen after the third quarter. They should be able to move the ball against a questionable Miami secondary who saw even its best defender in Howard get torched by sophomore Rashod Bateman last week. 

The Dolphins won't find it quite as easy as last week to attack downfield against the Bills' strong defense, but the injuries in Buffalo's secondary should certainly help in that area. 

Despite leading the league in DVOA defense last season, the Bills have gone 10-2-1 to the Over in their last 13 games on grass. 

Bills vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these AFC East foes. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Dolphins.

Bills vs Dolphins game info

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Date: Sunday, September 25, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET

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Bills vs Dolphins weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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