The NFL is giving us an NFC North rivalry game on Sunday night, as the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears. Justin Fields will start for the Bears while Aaron Rodgers will look to continue his dominance over Chicago.
Can Chicago's passing attack get anything going with Fields under center? Can the Packers take care of business and pound the ball on the ground as 12.5-point home NFL betting favorites?
Find out in our Week 14 SNF props picks for Bears vs. Packers.
Bears vs Packers prop picks
- Aaron Rodgers anytime TD (+850)
- A.J. Dillon Over 50.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Justin Fields Over 34.5 rushing yards (-115)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bears vs Packers SNF props
I still own you
Aaron Rodgers sat out practice on back-to-back days to begin the week but the Green Bay quarterback will be fine after getting in a practice on Friday. He’s dominated the Bears over his career with a 21-5 SU mark. He didn’t have a ton of success through the air in the Week 6 meeting but did rush a season-high seven times for 19 yards and a score. On the season, Rodgers has three rushing TDs in 11 games and is paying a healthy +850 to find the end zone again on Sunday.
Once again, bet365 is leading the way with another great TD price, as their +850 TD is much better value than some books that are offering this at +300. Chicago's defense has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
With the Bears missing some key pieces and banged up on the D-line, the Packers should be in control and have plenty of red zone opportunities after they scored three times in four trips in the last meeting. Rodgers would love to scamper for another score and break out the belt.
This is a half-unit play for us at +850.
PICK: Aaron Rodgers anytime TD (+850 at bet365)
Take your pick
In the last meeting, the Packers played with the lead for three quarters and ran the ball 31 times compared to just 23 passes. Aaron Jones had 13 carries for 76 rushing yards and added another 34 receiving yards and a score. A.J. Dillon saw 42 percent of the snaps and gained 59 rushing yards on 11 totes.
Chicago has a Bottom-10 rush defense by success rate and is one of 11 teams that average over 100 rushing yards allowed per game to opposing running backs. In Jones’ return to the lineup in Week 12, Dillon and Jones split snaps evenly but it was Dillon who was the hot hand with 20 rushes and a 3.5 ypc compared to Jones’ 10 carries and a 2.3 ypc. Dillon also had five receptions (and a score) to Jones’ zero catches.
The books are still high on Jones this week, as the starter’s rushing total sits at 59.5 yards compared to Dillon’s 50.5 yards. With Green Bay sitting at 12.5-point favorites and Fields’ offense expected to struggle, it’s realistic that both of these backs could see 15 carries but we’re taking the one in better form who also, to our benefit, has the shorter rushing total. Dillon has been good to us all year and we’re hoping Week 14 is no different. This is as high as 54.5 yards as of Saturday morning.
PICK: A.J. Dillon Over 50.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Fields trip
Justin Fields will be back under center for the Bears, which is a slight boost to the offense as Fields’ rushing ability opens up bigger opportunities. Fields finished with 43 rushing yards on six carries in the first meeting with a long rush of 16 yards. Fields would go on to average 8.66 carries per game in his following three games as his confidence scrambling grew.
Matt Nagy’s playcalling has throttled Fields’ rushing ceilings but entering Lambeau as 12.5-point underdogs, Fields might have to get creative Sunday night, rib injury and all. Coincidentally, the Packers allow the fifth-most rushing yards to QBs per game. Linebacker De'Vondre Campbell is questionable and Jaire Alexander will miss another game for the Packers.
Fields’ rushing total sits at 34.5 yards and is heading north. The rib injury is a risk, but this is a number he had topped in four straight games before the going down. Chicago should be forced to pass heavily leaving Fields plenty of opportunities to gain some yards on the ground.
PICK: Justin Fields Over 34.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
