NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Jason Logan breaks down his favorite Cowboys vs. Eagles anytime touchdown props for Thursday Night Football.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Sep 3, 2025 • 09:00 ET • 4 min read
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert (1) catches a touchdown pass.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert (1) catches a touchdown pass.

The last time we saw the Philadelphia Eagles, they were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy amongst a sea of green and white confetti. 

The Eagles scored 40 points in Super Bowl LIX, and with the way the Week 1 point spread versus Dallas continues to grow, Philadelphia is expected to put up plenty of points on Thursday Night Football.

Here are my best anytime touchdown picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Eagles on Thursday, September 4.

Cowboys anytime touchdown pick

Jalen Tolbert (+500 at bet365)

Jalen Tolbert is WR3 on this depth chart now that Jonathan Mingo is injured and should enjoy softer coverage with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens drawing the attention of the Eagles' secondary.

Tolbert was a popular target in the red zone for both Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush in 2024 and quietly scored seven touchdowns last season, including the lone score for the Dallas Cowboys in a 41-7 squash by Philadelphia in Week 17.

Tolbert was in a battle for the third option in the receivers' room this summer and was also at the center of many trade rumors. His snaps will take a hit with Pickens in play, but he’s proven to have a nose for the end zone.

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Eagles anytime touchdown pick

DeVonta Smith (+150 at bet365)

DeVonta Smith can pick up where he left off in Week 1. 

The Philadelphia Eagles' WR2 caught four of five balls for 69 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl LIX. He also reeled in two TDs in that one-sided win over the Cowboys in Week 17. All in all, Smith finished with nine touchdowns last season (including playoffs) and gets a favorable matchup against the Dallas secondary.

New defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus plays a lot more zone coverage than the past two Dallas DCs, which is something Smith thrives against. He ranked 14th among all WRs versus zone coverage at PFF in 2024.

Smith will likely draw coverage from Trevon Diggs, who just returned to full practice this week after missing most of 2024 with a knee injury. He told reporters there’s a 75% to 80% chance that he’s playing in Week 1, which means he’s not 100% healthy.

Smith is one of the best deep ball receivers in the league and this Cowboys secondary has been susceptible to home run hitters in recent years. Jalen Hurts will have plenty of time for those strikes to develop downfield now that Micah Parsons is in Wisconsin.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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