Sports betting operators are getting a real treat as the Philadelphia Eagles prepare to open at home against the Dallas Cowboys in the first game of the NFL regular season Thursday.
Key Takeaways
- The Eagles have been bet up to 8.5-point favorites.
- The first game of the season could produce a massive handle.
- Bettors are, unsurprisingly, loving the Eagles ML and over.
It’s the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles against one of the most high-profile sports teams in the world. Combine that with the growth of betting on America’s most popular sport, which is projected to generate $30 billion in legal wagering, and this game has the makings for a huge handle.
“Eagles-Cowboys is lining up to be the biggest bet game of the opening week thus far, and we would expect it to lead us in handle as we go through the season,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told Covers this week. “We couldn't ask for a better start with a great divisional rivalry matchup to start off the year.”
However, this game does differ from the typical NFL Thursday debuts from past seasons. The Eagles are 8.5-point favorites at DraftKings in a game that tends to showcase a closer line.
Does that mean bettors are shying away from it? Of course not. It’s the first game of the year. BetMGM and ESPN BET are reporting that Cowboys-Eagles is the most-bet game of Week 1 in both bets and handle.
“Usually, this is a big-handle game. It has been over the past few years,” Johnny Avello, director of sports betting at DraftKings, told Covers on Wednesday. “It’s usually the two top teams that are going to be contenders. Are the Cowboys going to be a contender? I don’t know. It’s kind of a higher spread for an opening game. Usually, those opening lines are a little bit lighter.”
Bucking the trend
Avello said one of the most popular Week 1 betting trends is to fade the team coming off a Super Bowl victory. That team usually opens the season on the first Thursday at home in a standalone game with a lot of attention and pressure to keep the vibes going from the previous campaign.
This year, though, that has not been the case in the betting market.
“I’m not seeing that trend right now,” Avello said. “The Eagles opened up -7, and there was a big move on it (Monday), and now the game is up to 8.5. That went against the trend that we normally see for the opening Super Bowl team playing.”
Could it be the Micah Parsons effect? The star linebacker and one of the most feared pass-rushers in the NFL was traded from Dallas to the Green Bay Packers last week, giving the Cowboys an even more vulnerable look after missing the playoffs last season.
Avello said that bettors are perhaps “thinking the Cowboys are in disarray” without Parsons, but “the bettors are the ones that made that (spread) move.”
One-sided splits
Thursday night’s matchup has been incredibly one-sided this week. The Eagles are getting 76% of the spread tickets and 81% of the handle at FanDuel. There’s an even bigger difference at BetMGM, which reported that 88% of the money is on the favorite.
ESPN BET, which has moved the line up to 8.5 points, is seeing a little bit less action on the Eagles, who are getting 78.1% of the handle and 73% of the bets. Currently at -8 with Philadelphia, Caesars reported bets were coming in on both sides.
“We're seeing relatively split action thus far, with more bets coming on the over as opposed to the under,” Feazel said.
Backing a winner
As for the moneyline, the Eagles are the most-bet team to win outright at ESPN BET despite being a -425 favorite. BetMGM opened with the Eagles at -325 but has moved the ML odds to -415 after seeing 75% of the money backing the home team.
However, with a popular team like the Cowboys sitting there with a juicy +310 at DraftKings, some buy-back is likely coming.
“There are going to be some people taking some shots on the Cowboys on the moneyline, but to lay that Eagles price on the moneyline is a little stiff,” Avello said.
Other markets
It’s not a surprise that bettors are taking the over, especially on nationally televised contests. The under 47.5 has taken just 35% of the handle and 36% of the bets at DraftKings.
The bets on the total are more split at FanDuel, which has seen 56% of the tickets on the over, but the handle is 64% on the over. ESPN BET reported both categories are over 70%.
BetMGM is the only operator to release player prop insights so far. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley leads the market in tickets with +375 odds. His quarterback, Jalen Hurts, is second at +550, followed by receiver A.J. Brown (+900), Dallas wideout CeeDee Lamb (+1,000), and Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (+1,000).
Smith also has the most-bet prop with his longest catch going under 22.5 yards at -145.
