Week 8 of the NFL season falls on National Tight Ends Day, making it the perfect spot to target NFL touchdown props. Sunday’s slate features plenty of red-zone potential, with teams leaning on their tight ends to capitalize inside the 20.
From reliable scorers like Jake Ferguson to value plays ready to break through, there’s no shortage of betting angles for my NFL picks. Let’s break down the best TE touchdown props for Week 8's action.
Best Week 8 TD props
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 Bills vs  Panthers |
Kincaid +250 |
 Bears vs  Ravens |
Loveland +550 |
 Browns vs  Patriots |
Hooper +600 |
 Dolphins vs  Falcons |
Pitts +190 |
 Jets vs  Bengals |
Taylor +270 | Fant +365 |
 Giants vs  Eagles |
T. Johnson +350 |
 49ers vs  Texans |
Kittle +200 |
 Buccaneers vs  Saints |
J. Johnson +320 |
 Cowboys vs  Broncos |
Ferguson +230 |
 Titans vs  Colts |
Helm +425 |
 Packers vs  Steelers |
Smith +300 |
 Commanders vs  Chiefs |
Mariota +450 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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Bills vs Panthers
Dalton Kincaid (+250 at DraftKings) A
There’s some risk with Dalton Kincaid after he missed Week 6, but the Week 7 bye likely helped him recover from the oblique injury. He was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but the upside makes the risk worth considering.
Before sitting out, Kincaid had six catches for over 100 yards in his last game and had scored in three of the four games before that. This offense clearly needs him, and a Top-5 matchup at +185 or better puts him in a strong betting spot.
If Kincaid doesn’t play, Dawson Knox becomes the pivot. That said, you'd want better than +250 to make that move worth it.
Bears vs Ravens
Colston Loveland (+550 at DraftKings) B+
Cole Kmet exited the last game with a back injury, which could open the door for rookie tight end Colston Loveland in a strong matchup against the worst scoring defense in the league. If Lamar Jackson returns, it could also boost the Bears' pass rate.
Monitor this situation closely. If Kmet is ruled out and Loveland steps into a full-time TE1 role, this should be priced around +280 to +300. After Kmet’s injury in Week 7, Loveland ran more routes than anyone on the team outside of DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
The Bears have gone over their team total in all six games this season. With the run game heating up, the play-action should open things up even more for the tight ends.
Browns vs Patriots
Austin Hooper (+600 at DraftKings) B+
Cleveland’s defense doesn’t travel well.
At home, they’ve allowed just 40 points across four games. But on the road, they’ve given up 98 to Baltimore, Detroit, and Pittsburgh.
With Drake Maye making real strides this season, I’m not shying away from backing the Patriots' offense against the Browns. While Hunter Henry might look like the obvious play, I’m targeting Austin Hooper at +600.
He was the only tight end to see a red-zone target last week — and he converted it into a three-yard touchdown. The Patriots have struggled to run near the goal line, so don’t be surprised if they lean on 2TE sets and throw inside the 20.
Cleveland has also allowed touchdowns to backup tight ends in two of their last three games — Conner Heyward (+2700) and Josh Oliver (+1300) — making Hooper a live longshot.
Dolphins vs Falcons
Kyle Pitts (+190 at DraftKings) B-
This is a strong matchup for Kyle Pitts, who’s tied for the team lead with two red-zone targets over the last two games. Since Week 3, only Pitts and Drake London have seen any targets near the goal line among Atlanta's WRs and TEs.
The passing offense isn’t elite, which is why this grades out as a B-, and the price has been better in past weeks. But with just four real options in this offense, Pitts has a consistent role.
He tied for the team lead with 10 targets last week, and the return of Darnell Mooney appears to be impacting London more than Pitts. I wouldn’t play this below +175, but Mooney at +300 also has some value in this spot.
Jets vs Bengals
Mason Taylor (+270 at DraftKings) A | Noah Fant ( +365 at DraftKings) B
Let’s be honest — betting is the only thing that’s going to make this one watchable. I’m targeting a pair of tight end TD bets in Justin Fields/Tyrod Taylor vs. Joe Flacco.
Both defenses rank near the bottom of the league against tight ends. The Bengals are especially vulnerable, allowing 77 yards and 1.3 TDs per game to the position.
Mason Taylor is on the field for 93% of snaps, and with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson both questionable, the rookie could be in line for a breakout. This is a solid spot for his first career touchdown.
On the other side, Noah Fant benefits from the better passing offense. Since Flacco took over, Fant has been the one running routes at tight end. He and Drew Sample split snaps last week, but Fant saw 100% of the four tight-end targets — and turned one into a five-yard TD at +400. He’s in play again here to +325.
Giants vs Eagles
Theo Johnson (+350 at DraftKings) A+
This is a great price on a tight end who’s found the end zone four times since Jaxson Dart took over. His target rate has also climbed since Malik Nabers went down in Week 4. He was +400 to score last week and now faces an Eagles defense ranked in the bottom third in points allowed per game.
Dart has shown he can move the ball — even against a strong Denver defense last week, he threw three touchdowns on just 15 completions. The Giants have also struggled to run the ball efficiently in the red zone, which only boosts the case for Johnson. Since Week 4, he’s caught four of five red-zone targets for three touchdowns.
His red-zone usage is nearly identical to Tyler Warren’s in Indy — and Warren is +110 to score this week.
49ers vs Texans
George Kittle (+200 at DraftKings) B
Let’s back the guy who started “National Tight Ends Day” — George Kittle. He’s +200 to score, which is a better value than Dalton Schultz at +165.
Kittle is coming off a zero-catch game despite playing 90% of the snaps, and that should correct this week indoors in his second game back from injury.
Last season, after posting his lowest output of the year (one catch), he followed it up with a season-high 151 yards on six receptions. Expect more involvement and a solid bounce-back spot here.
Buccaneers vs Saints
Juwan Johnson (+320 at DraftKings) A-
With Cade Otton’s price dropping to around +180, I’ll pivot to one of the more reliable tight ends in football. Juwan Johnson is at home, indoors, facing a Bucs team in a letdown spot after a big primetime game on a short week.
Johnson rarely leaves the field, running routes on 83% of dropbacks while maintaining a solid 20% target share. The Saints have also been less effective on the ground in the red zone without Kendre Miller — Alvin Kamara has just one touchdown on 13 red-zone carries.
This number is strong value for the clear 2A/B option in New Orleans’ passing game behind Chris Olave.
Cowboys vs Broncos
Jake Ferguson (+230 at DraftKings) A+
I expected this number to open much shorter. Jake Ferguson has scored in four straight games, caught seven passes with CeeDee Lamb back in the lineup last week, and ranks second in the league in red-zone targets. The Dallas offense is humming, and Denver’s defense isn’t as strong as the market suggests.
Ferguson closed at +160 last week and found the end zone twice. He also scored in Week 6 at +160 and had two more touchdowns in Week 5 at +145. Getting +230 here feels generous — I’d play it down to +170.
Theo Johnson just went for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos last week, and that was in a game where his team controlled the pace throughout.
Titans vs. Colts
Gunner Helm (+425 at DraftKings) B
Titans interim head coach Mike McCoy said this week the offense plans to “emphasize what it does best,” especially with rookie QB Cam Ward. McCoy added, “If Cam likes it, it’s going to work more often than not. The most important thing is to let the QB play fast.”
That sounds like a good spot to back the Titans’ passing game, which looked much improved last week despite the result. Tennessee also posted a higher pass rate over expected in McCoy’s first game.
Gunner Helm was the only tight end to see targets last week, even though Chig Okonkwo ran more routes. This could be the week the rookie earns a larger snap share.
With Calvin Ridley missing last week and opening this week as a DNP due to a hamstring issue, Helm should see more opportunities — especially indoors and likely playing from behind.
Packers vs Steelers
Jonnu Smith (+300 at DraftKings) A+
This sets up as a strong tight-end touchdown spot, with both defenses struggling against the position. No team allows more TE receptions per game (8.3) than Green Bay, and only Cincinnati has given up more touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Last week, Aaron Rodgers heavily targeted his tight ends — Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington combined for 10 of the team’s 23 catches and four total TDs. Washington was used more as a blocker, but Smith and Freiermuth each played at least 65% of snaps and ran routes on over 75% of dropbacks. Pittsburgh leaned on multi-TE sets on 71% of its plays against the Bengals.
All three tight ends saw multiple red-zone targets, which explains why they’re all priced around +300. I’m siding with Smith here — his usage has been the most consistent, he’s running the majority of routes, and he offers the safest floor in this setup.
Commanders vs Chiefs
Marcus Mariota (+450 at DraftKings) A
Not a tight end play, but Monday isn’t National TE Day — and Marcus Mariota at this price for a rushing touchdown is too good to pass up, even in a tougher matchup.
In his two starts this season, Mariota has eight carries for 80 yards and a touchdown. This game could set up with plenty of passing volume, and Kansas City ranks as a top-five defense to target for rushing quarterbacks.
Mariota has just one fewer red-zone carry than Jayden Daniels this year, despite playing 270 fewer snaps. He was priced at +280 and +360 for a touchdown in his previous two starts, so this number offers solid value.
Week 8 anytime touchdown parlay
Ty Warren
Jake Ferguson
Tucker Kraft
Nothing fancy here: I'm just taking three of the Top-5 most-probable TE scorers, per THE BLITZ.
Ty Warren is a player I always pass up for a single play, but he scores seemingly every week. Jake Ferguson showed he is still a giant piece of this offense, even with CeeDee Lamb back. Tucker Kraft might be the most consistent pass-catcher in this Green Bay offense.
My weekly NFL TD props column is 33-72 this season for +19.59 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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